---
title: "Mirage Breeze case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Mirage Breeze ($36.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 47 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490785
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Mirage Breeze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490785)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Mirage Breeze

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490785?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490785?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490785) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490785?window=all)

Price · $36.00

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $32.00 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490785?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490785?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490785) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490785?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $1,915 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $1,671 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $1,255 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,754 | $935 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $718 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 840 | $453 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 763 | $411 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 752 | $405 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $352 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 395 | $279 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-field-tested) | 1 in 366 | $258 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 364 | $257 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 272 | $192 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 245 | $173 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 214 | $151 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $145 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $132 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 173 | $122 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $119 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) | 1 in 163 | $115 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 162 | $114 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $87.73 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $85.88 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 109 | $77.02 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $73.59 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $69.39 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $57.52 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $54.56 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $52.10 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $49.02 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $48.93 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $45.10 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $41.01 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $38.95 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $36.85 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 317 | $34.42 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 194 | $21.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $17.52 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 138 | $14.90 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $13.81 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $10.82 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $6.74 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $3.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-factory-new) | 10.7% | $1.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-minimal-wear) | 13.4% | $0.81 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) | 21.7% | $0.50 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1490785`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1490785)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $36.00 | 88.88% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.5% #ffd700 0.7% Covert 0.3% extraordinary 0.9% classified 7.9% mil spec 13.7% #d32ee6 3.2% red 3.7% restricted 22.0% industrial 0.5% Legendary 1.0% violet 1.6% Mythical 3.6% #8847ff 5.1% #4b69ff 13.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt