---
title: "Wave Watch case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Wave Watch ($55.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.35% from 36 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490814
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Wave Watch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490814)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Wave Watch

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490814?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490814?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490814) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490814?window=all)

Price · $55.00

Advertised RTP · 84.35% · EV $46.39 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490814?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490814?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490814) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490814?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $3,676 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $2,879 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $2,562 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $1,879 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,326 | $1,559 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,887 | $1,249 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,053 | $703 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 926 | $617 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 909 | $604 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $512 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142 | $350 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $346 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $288 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $211 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $121 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $121 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $120 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $103 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $91.70 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $78.57 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $78.36 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $67.98 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $67.66 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $58.17 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $57.52 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $57.31 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-well-worn) | 1 in 455 | $54.56 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 336 | $40.23 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 219 | $26.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 158 | $19.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 101 | $12.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $7.08 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 19.4% | $0.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) | 22.2% | $0.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1490814`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1490814)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $55.00 | 84.35% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 20.7% extraordinary 5.0% gold 0.2% restricted 2.1% #d32ee6 0.7% #ffd700 1.2% industrial 2.4% classified 4.7% Legendary 3.2% red 2.3% mil spec 38.2% Restricted 19.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.35 on average: an expected loss of $15.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt