---
title: "Cage Heat case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cage Heat ($14.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.82% from 48 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490901
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Cage Heat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490901)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Cage Heat

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490901?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490901?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490901) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490901?window=all)

Price · $14.00

Advertised RTP · 88.82% · EV $12.43 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490901?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490901?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490901) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1490901?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $1,084 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $765 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,149 | $281 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 1,010 | $248 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 990 | $243 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 952 | $232 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 820 | $201 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 800 | $196 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 654 | $160 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 493 | $137 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 488 | $136 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 437 | $121 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 360 | $99.92 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 351 | $97.55 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 330 | $91.69 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 328 | $91.08 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $87.07 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 289 | $80.25 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 279 | $77.69 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 278 | $77.25 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-well-worn) | 1 in 264 | $73.35 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 248 | $68.99 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 207 | $57.58 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 194 | $53.91 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 173 | $48.14 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 172 | $47.70 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166 | $46.12 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $27.62 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $25.79 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $20.73 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $19.64 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $16.65 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $14.09 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $12.94 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $11.86 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $8.63 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $5.36 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $4.48 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $4.04 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.71 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $1.23 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.75 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-core-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.75 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $0.50 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Grim (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 11.2% | $0.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1490901`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1490901)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $14.00 | 88.82% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% covert 3.7% sunny 0.1% extraordinary 0.9% Ancient 0.1% #ffd700 0.2% classified 12.6% restricted 9.0% gold 0.5% pink 2.4% mil spec 9.8% uncommon 5.0% #d32ee6 2.5% Legendary 6.8% violet 2.3% milspec 9.8% #8847ff 3.1% #4b69ff 31.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.82 on average: an expected loss of $11.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt