---
title: "Judgment Gate case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Judgment Gate ($1.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.96% from 31 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521172
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Judgment Gate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521172)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Judgment Gate

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521172?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521172?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521172) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521172?window=all)

Price · $1.50

Advertised RTP · 88.96% · EV $1.33 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521172?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521172?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521172) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521172?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $190 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $166 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $126 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $75.28 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $48.72 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,448 | $34.75 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,703 | $26.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,786 | $17.88 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 1,786 | $17.70 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,754 | $17.61 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 287 | $15.61 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 282 | $15.42 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 248 | $13.53 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $12.29 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 224 | $12.20 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $8.92 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162 | $8.81 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 122 | $6.63 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $3.35 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $3.31 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $3.31 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3.25 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $3.22 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $2.80 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $2.77 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $2.32 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.98 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $1.75 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $1.72 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.66 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 64.3% | $0.07 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1521172`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1521172)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.50 | 88.96% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.2% extraordinary 0.0% classified 6.8% restricted 12.3% pink 4.5% Ancient 0.4% Legendary 2.7% mil spec 1.6% Restricted 2.4% #8847ff 3.7% Rare 64.3%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.96 on average: an expected loss of $11.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt