---
title: "Cursed Nomad case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cursed Nomad ($12.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.86% from 37 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521195
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Cursed Nomad](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521195)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Cursed Nomad

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521195?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521195?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521195) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521195?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 88.86% · EV $10.66 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521195?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521195?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521195) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1521195?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $885 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $858 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $798 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $579 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $387 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-well-worn) | 1 in 1,923 | $229 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,887 | $227 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,163 | $140 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 1,136 | $136 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,124 | $135 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 292 | $131 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 278 | $125 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $93.50 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $51.56 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 113 | $51.03 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $34.79 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $33.10 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $28.57 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $27.82 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $27.70 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $26.37 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $24.46 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $23.67 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $20.55 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $20.10 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $17.85 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.67 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $13.42 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $13.34 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $0.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 13.8% | $0.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 13.8% | $0.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) | 15.5% | $0.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1521195`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1521195)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.00 | 88.86% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 8.7% gold 0.0% covert knife 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% classified 14.2% #ffd700 0.3% red 3.9% #d32ce6 6.3% Ancient 4.0% #8847ff 2.2% Rare 2.5% mil spec 3.3% milspec 18.2% #4b69ff 36.1%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.86 on average: an expected loss of $11.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt