---
title: "KINGUIN case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "KINGUIN ($9.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.08% from 37 items with odds, observed 89.17% over 6,347 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1528220
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [KINGUIN](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1528220)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · KINGUIN

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1528220?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1528220?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1528220) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1528220?window=all)

Price · $9.00

Advertised RTP · 89.08% · EV $8.02 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.17% · 6,347 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.25% ±18.52 620 openings

7 days · 90.01% ±6.56 4,940 openings

30 days · 89.17% ±5.79 6,347 openings

since tracking started · 89.17% ±5.79 6,347 openings

57.0% 77.0% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1528220?window=24h) | 620 | 76.25% ±18.5 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1528220?window=7d) | 4,940 | 90.01% ±6.56 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1528220) | 6,347 | 89.17% ±5.79 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1528220?window=all) | 6,347 | 89.17% ±5.79 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,349 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $653 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $415 | 1.2% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.97× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $293 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,857 | $285 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $211 | 1.2% | 7 | 3.0 | 2.35× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 2,083 | $206 | 1.2% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.31× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,786 | $176 | 1.2% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.41× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 1,408 | $139 | 1.2% | 1 | 4.5 | 0.22× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,389 | $137 | 1.2% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.66× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 990 | $98.03 | 1.2% | 3 | 6.4 | 0.47× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 267 | $86.55 | 4.0% | 18 | 23.8 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 236 | $76.71 | 4.0% | 28 | 26.9 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 234 | $75.95 | 4.0% | 23 | 27.1 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 224 | $72.48 | 4.0% | 36 | 28.4 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 185 | $59.88 | 4.0% | 42 | 34.3 | 1.22× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $59.27 | 4.0% | 42 | 34.7 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $50.03 | 4.0% | 41 | 41.1 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $46.83 | 4.0% | 56 | 43.9 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $40.08 | 4.0% | 50 | 51.4 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $27.57 | 4.0% | 68 | 74.7 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 79 | $25.76 | 4.0% | 75 | 79.9 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $25.23 | 4.0% | 72 | 81.6 | 0.88× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $17.85 | 4.5% | 125 | 128.9 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $17.46 | 4.5% | 141 | 131.8 | 1.07× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $16.36 | 4.5% | 135 | 140.7 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $15.39 | 4.5% | 143 | 149.5 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $14.88 | 4.5% | 173 | 154.7 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $14.70 | 4.5% | 145 | 156.6 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $13.50 | 4.5% | 162 | 170.5 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $12.96 | 4.5% | 173 | 177.6 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.69 | 0.4% | 128 | 126.7 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Imprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-imprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.53 | 0.4% | 415 | 403.9 | 1.03× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.47 | 0.4% | 458 | 455.4 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.43 | 0.4% | 506 | 497.8 | 1.02× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 10.5% | $0.32 | 0.4% | 663 | 668.9 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 19.2% | $0.18 | 0.4% | 1,192 | 1217.2 | 0.98× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-field-tested) | 18.7% | $0.18 | 0.4% | 1,211 | 1189.2 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1528220`, 12 Nov, 06:57 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1528220)

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $15.39 1.71x 2026-11-12 06:38 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.18 0.02x 2026-11-12 06:38 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-field-tested) [\*\*\*\* CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/****%20CS2.ME-76561199482103180) $9.00 $0.18 0.02x 2026-11-12 06:38 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-imprint-minimal-wear) [kozaak213](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kozaak213) $9.00 $0.53 0.06x 2026-11-12 06:31 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) [MaChInE GuN CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MaChInE%20GuN%20CSGOSKINS) $9.00 $0.43 0.05x 2026-11-12 06:31 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [kozaak213](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kozaak213) $9.00 $15.39 1.71x 2026-11-12 06:31 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [MaChInE GuN CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MaChInE%20GuN%20CSGOSKINS) $9.00 $0.32 0.04x 2026-11-12 06:31 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.18 0.02x 2026-11-12 05:41 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-field-tested) [LastHope](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LastHope) $9.00 $0.18 0.02x 2026-11-12 05:41 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.00 $0.32 0.04x 2026-11-12 05:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $9.00 | 89.08% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.0% Covert 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.4% extraordinary 0.5% classified 14.1% #d32ee6 1.3% Legendary 1.3% restricted 4.8% pink 2.7% Mythical 9.2% #4b69ff 25.5% #8847ff 7.8% mil spec 10.5% milspec 18.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.08 on average: an expected loss of $10.92 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt