---
title: "Heaton case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Heaton ($7.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 39 items with odds, observed 90.20% over 3,712 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1534817
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Heaton](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1534817)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Heaton

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1534817?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1534817?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1534817) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1534817?window=all)

Price · $7.00

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $6.22 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.20% · 3,712 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 118.11% ±24.18 385 openings

7 days · 91.79% ±9.01 2,775 openings

30 days · 90.20% ±7.79 3,712 openings

since tracking started · 90.20% ±7.79 3,712 openings

82.0% 112.5% 143.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1534817?window=24h) | 385 | 118.11% ±24.2 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1534817?window=7d) | 2,775 | 91.79% ±9.01 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1534817) | 3,712 | 90.20% ±7.79 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1534817?window=all) | 3,712 | 90.20% ±7.79 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,716 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $541 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $405 | 1.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $355 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $291 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $203 | 1.3% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.02× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 2,439 | $199 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 1,754 | $142 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,695 | $138 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $108 | 1.3% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 1,205 | $97.80 | 1.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 971 | $79.41 | 1.3% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 317 | $63.48 | 3.2% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 304 | $60.86 | 3.2% | 17 | 12.2 | 1.39× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 289 | $57.76 | 3.2% | 18 | 12.9 | 1.40× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 258 | $51.59 | 3.2% | 10 | 14.4 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) | 1 in 246 | $49.24 | 3.2% | 21 | 15.1 | 1.39× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Well-Worn) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-well-worn) | 1 in 209 | $41.75 | 3.2% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $22.48 | 3.2% | 33 | 33.1 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $21.89 | 3.2% | 37 | 34.0 | 1.09× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $20.43 | 3.2% | 37 | 36.4 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $19.59 | 3.2% | 41 | 37.9 | 1.08× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $16.43 | 3.2% | 55 | 45.2 | 1.22× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $15.46 | 3.2% | 36 | 48.1 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $15.35 | 3.2% | 45 | 48.4 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $12.79 | 8.0% | 130 | 145.3 | 0.89× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $10.92 | 8.0% | 164 | 170.2 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $10.59 | 8.0% | 144 | 175.4 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $9.70 | 8.0% | 200 | 191.6 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $8.38 | 8.0% | 242 | 221.7 | 1.09× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 1 in 266 | $6.12 | 0.4% | 21 | 14.0 | 1.50× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 226 | $5.19 | 0.4% | 12 | 16.5 | 0.73× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.53 | 0.4% | 152 | 161.3 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.46 | 0.4% | 203 | 185.8 | 1.09× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.46 | 0.4% | 193 | 185.8 | 1.04× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.43 | 0.4% | 205 | 198.8 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.35 | 0.4% | 245 | 244.2 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.23 | 0.4% | 358 | 371.6 | 0.96× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) | 12.1% | $0.19 | 0.4% | 442 | 449.8 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) | 16.1% | $0.14 | 0.4% | 607 | 596.8 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1534817`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [Jaszczomp](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jaszczomp) $7.00 $541 77.22x 2026-11-04 19:55 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.00 $405 57.86x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [Dimitri Jebiewkakalov](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Dimitri%20Jebiewkakalov) $7.00 $405 57.86x 2026-11-11 00:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1534817)

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) [Czarny Eriko](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Czarny%20Eriko) $7.00 $0.14 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $7.00 $0.14 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Well-Worn) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-well-worn) [BoA\_Dupczyciel](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BoA_Dupczyciel) $7.00 $41.75 5.96x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) [EXILED^^](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/EXILED%5E%5E) $7.00 $0.14 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) Hidden $7.00 $16.43 2.35x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.00 $9.70 1.39x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC

[P2000 | Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.00 $0.23 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [Enrique Iglesias](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Enrique%20Iglesias) $7.00 $0.46 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [Jemielo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jemielo) $7.00 $21.89 3.13x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) [pussy-drillercase.gift](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pussy-drillercase.gift) $7.00 $10.92 1.56x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.00 | 88.92% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.2% restricted 1.0% Legendary 0.3% classified 10.7% Extraordinary 0.5% pink 5.6% mil spec 5.3% #d32ee6 5.9% Rare 8.9% violet 10.5% #8847ff 5.3% milspec 6.6% #4b69ff 38.2% best hit $541 (77.22x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt