---
title: "CS2 KINGUIN case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS2 KINGUIN ($18.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.85% from 43 items with odds, observed 88.28% over 1,808 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538568
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [CS2 KINGUIN](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538568)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · CS2 KINGUIN

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538568?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538568?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538568) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538568?window=all)

Price · $18.00

Advertised RTP · 88.85% · EV $15.99 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.28% · 1,808 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.00% ±32.28 201 openings

7 days · 84.61% ±11.93 1,471 openings

30 days · 88.28% ±10.76 1,808 openings

since tracking started · 88.28% ±10.76 1,808 openings

52.0% 85.0% 118.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538568?window=24h) | 201 | 85.00% ±32.3 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538568?window=7d) | 1,471 | 84.61% ±11.9 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538568) | 1,808 | 88.28% ±10.8 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538568?window=all) | 1,808 | 88.28% ±10.8 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,811 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,244 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $782 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,786 | $558 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,064 | $332 | 2.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.76× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 1,020 | $317 | 1.9% | 5 | 1.8 | 2.82× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 680 | $213 | 2.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.38× |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 645 | $201 | 1.9% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.78× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 588 | $183 | 1.9% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 368 | $144 | 2.4% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 352 | $138 | 2.5% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.58× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 340 | $133 | 2.4% | 7 | 5.3 | 1.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 334 | $131 | 2.4% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 330 | $129 | 2.4% | 7 | 5.5 | 1.28× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 302 | $118 | 2.4% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $115 | 2.4% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 279 | $109 | 2.5% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 265 | $104 | 2.4% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 249 | $97.45 | 2.4% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.69× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 207 | $81.10 | 2.4% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $71.38 | 2.5% | 12 | 9.9 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 160 | $62.79 | 2.4% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $54.92 | 2.4% | 25 | 12.9 | 1.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $53.53 | 2.4% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $50.86 | 2.4% | 5 | 13.9 | 0.36× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $48.19 | 2.4% | 12 | 14.7 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $48.16 | 2.4% | 23 | 14.7 | 1.56× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $38.51 | 2.4% | 12 | 18.4 | 0.65× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $33.86 | 6.2% | 46 | 52.8 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $30.20 | 6.2% | 49 | 59.2 | 0.83× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $27.20 | 6.2% | 61 | 65.7 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $22.42 | 6.2% | 73 | 79.7 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $21.14 | 6.2% | 87 | 84.5 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $18.02 | 6.2% | 93 | 99.2 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $1.58 | 0.1% | 13 | 15.6 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $0.99 | 0.1% | 32 | 24.9 | 1.29× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.56 | 0.1% | 38 | 44.0 | 0.86× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 51 | 53.6 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.45 | 0.1% | 49 | 54.7 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 76 | 79.4 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 107 | 107.1 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 124 | 129.6 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) | 17.0% | $0.08 | 0.1% | 323 | 307.9 | 1.05× |
| [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.07 | 0.1% | 395 | 362.0 | 1.09× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1538568`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) [sysek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sysek) $18.00 $782 43.46x 2026-11-04 12:21 UTC

[★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.00 $558 31.01x 2026-11-10 12:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1538568)

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.00 $0.99 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $18.00 $1.58 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Off World (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-well-worn) [♬dewues♬](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%99%ACdewues%E2%99%AC) $18.00 $0.31 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Off World (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-well-worn) [infinihedge](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/infinihedge) $18.00 $0.31 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC

[USP-S | Overgrowth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-battle-scarred) [支う影](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E6%94%AF%E3%81%86%E5%BD%B1) $18.00 $22.42 1.25x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.00 $0.07 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.00 $0.07 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC

[Glock-18 | Wraiths (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wraiths-field-tested) Hidden $18.00 $0.56 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC

[G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) [Chudyy "skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Chudyy%20%22skins.army%E2%80%9D) $18.00 $33.86 1.88x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.00 $0.07 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $18.00 | 88.85% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.7% gold 0.0% classified 22.9% extraordinary 0.5% restricted 5.7% red 0.3% #ffd700 0.7% violet 0.9% Restricted 1.4% #4b69ff 35.5% Mythical 3.0% #8847ff 3.0% milspec 21.4% best hit $782 (43.46x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.85 on average: an expected loss of $11.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt