--- title: "Misa case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Misa ($7.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.93% from 39 items with odds, observed 90.78% over 8,718 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538578 rendered: 2026-11-11T23:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Misa](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538578) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Misa A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538578?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538578?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538578) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538578?window=all) Price · $7.50 Advertised RTP · 88.93% · EV $6.67 from 39 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.78% · 8,718 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.85% ±11.50 1,132 openings 7 days · 92.60% ±4.59 7,110 openings 30 days · 90.78% ±4.14 8,718 openings since tracking started · 90.78% ±4.14 8,718 openings 75.5% 87.8% 100.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538578?window=24h) | 1,132 | 87.85% ±11.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538578?window=7d) | 7,110 | 92.60% ±4.59 | +1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538578) | 8,718 | 90.78% ±4.14 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1538578?window=all) | 8,718 | 90.78% ±4.14 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,754 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $365 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.86× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $232 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $214 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.63× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $212 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $147 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 3,125 | $140 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $129 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $127 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 2,381 | $107 | 0.7% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $93.15 | 0.7% | 7 | 4.2 | 1.67× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $89.97 | 0.7% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.37× | | [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 1,754 | $78.56 | 0.7% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 239 | $67.25 | 4.2% | 33 | 36.7 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 229 | $64.45 | 4.2% | 60 | 38.3 | 1.57× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 221 | $62.13 | 4.2% | 47 | 39.7 | 1.19× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 194 | $54.71 | 4.2% | 47 | 45.1 | 1.04× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $54.29 | 4.2% | 37 | 45.4 | 0.81× | | [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $42.81 | 4.2% | 65 | 57.6 | 1.13× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 129 | $36.45 | 4.2% | 62 | 67.7 | 0.92× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $32.33 | 4.2% | 80 | 76.2 | 1.05× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $31.91 | 4.2% | 76 | 77.2 | 0.98× | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $31.03 | 4.2% | 90 | 79.4 | 1.13× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $22.35 | 4.2% | 108 | 110.3 | 0.98× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $19.39 | 4.2% | 110 | 127.1 | 0.87× | | [XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $15.03 | 6.4% | 241 | 248.5 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $14.87 | 6.4% | 252 | 251.2 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $12.79 | 6.4% | 305 | 292.0 | 1.04× | | [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $10.59 | 6.4% | 330 | 352.7 | 0.94× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $10.49 | 6.4% | 334 | 356.0 | 0.94× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $8.94 | 6.4% | 456 | 417.8 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.98 | 0.3% | 200 | 191.6 | 1.04× | | [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.67 | 0.3% | 298 | 280.2 | 1.06× | | [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.46 | 0.3% | 433 | 408.1 | 1.06× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.44 | 0.3% | 424 | 426.7 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.36 | 0.3% | 529 | 521.5 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.33 | 0.3% | 566 | 568.8 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $0.19 | 0.3% | 997 | 988.0 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 14.3% | $0.15 | 0.3% | 1,258 | 1251.5 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) | 15.6% | $0.14 | 0.3% | 1,284 | 1363.4 | 0.94× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1538578`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1538578) [XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) [tortołamacz](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/torto%C5%82amacz) $7.50 $15.03 2.00x 2026-11-11 23:11 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-battle-scarred) [13BANDZIOR12](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/13BANDZIOR12) $7.50 $0.44 0.06x 2026-11-11 23:11 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-battle-scarred) [Miszka](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Miszka) $7.50 $0.44 0.06x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) [hygccbbhgf](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/hygccbbhgf) $7.50 $0.36 0.05x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) Hidden $7.50 $0.33 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $7.50 $0.14 0.02x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) [eRbeTe (Unofficial Fanpage)](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/eRbeTe%20%28Unofficial%20Fanpage%29) $7.50 $22.35 2.98x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) Hidden $7.50 $10.59 1.41x 2026-11-11 23:08 UTC [SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-field-tested) Hidden $7.50 $0.46 0.06x 2026-11-11 23:08 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) [eRbeTe (Unofficial Fanpage)](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/eRbeTe%20%28Unofficial%20Fanpage%29) $7.50 $0.36 0.05x 2026-11-11 23:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.50 | 88.93% | 39 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.2% #ffd700 0.4% classified 15.4% restricted 0.7% Ancient 0.8% extraordinary 0.9% pink 0.9% mil spec 7.2% #d32ee6 1.5% Rare 3.3% #d32ce6 4.1% #4b69ff 59.4% violet 3.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.93 on average: an expected loss of $11.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt