--- title: "Stray Ashore case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stray Ashore ($16.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.91% from 26 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544173 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Stray Ashore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544173) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Stray Ashore A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544173?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544173?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544173) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544173?window=all) Price · $16.00 Advertised RTP · 88.91% · EV $14.23 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 59.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544173?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544173?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544173) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544173?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $1,513 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $1,286 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $1,046 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $675 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 1,923 | $335 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,099 | $193 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,064 | $187 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,031 | $180 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 151 | $151 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $105 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $66.87 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $37.92 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $36.88 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $36.32 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $36.05 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $33.69 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $29.35 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $25.66 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $18.18 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $17.89 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $17.48 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.55 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 11.6% | $0.19 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Grim (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-battle-scarred) | 15.7% | $0.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 20.9% | $0.11 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1544173`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1544173) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $16.00 | 88.91% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.1% legendary 0.0% #ffd700 0.1% classified 23.1% Ancient 2.7% #d32ee6 2.8% red 3.3% Mythical 4.0% mil spec 40.1% #4b69ff 15.7% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.91 on average: an expected loss of $11.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt