---
title: "SZELI case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SZELI ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.98% from 36 items with odds, observed 90.22% over 4,293 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544251
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [SZELI](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544251)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · SZELI

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544251?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544251?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544251) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544251?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 88.98% · EV $8.90 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.22% · 4,293 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.60% ±28.40 294 openings

7 days · 91.13% ±8.24 3,493 openings

30 days · 90.22% ±7.43 4,293 openings

since tracking started · 90.22% ±7.43 4,293 openings

53.5% 82.5% 111.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544251?window=24h) | 294 | 82.60% ±28.4 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544251?window=7d) | 3,493 | 91.13% ±8.24 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544251) | 4,293 | 90.22% ±7.43 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1544251?window=all) | 4,293 | 90.22% ±7.43 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,307 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $426 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $360 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.60× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $292 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.29× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,778 | $291 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.29× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,041 | $214 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,639 | $174 | 1.2% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,562 | $164 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,389 | $146 | 1.2% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,042 | $110 | 1.2% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 194 | $99.34 | 5.7% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 189 | $96.70 | 5.7% | 33 | 22.8 | 1.45× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 173 | $88.61 | 5.8% | 27 | 24.9 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $83.05 | 5.7% | 25 | 26.5 | 0.94× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $78.95 | 5.7% | 27 | 27.9 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $71.82 | 5.8% | 32 | 30.7 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $71.67 | 5.8% | 26 | 30.8 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 138 | $70.77 | 5.8% | 35 | 31.1 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $56.58 | 5.8% | 41 | 39.0 | 1.05× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $54.27 | 5.8% | 38 | 40.6 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $50.56 | 5.8% | 50 | 43.6 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $46.28 | 5.8% | 44 | 47.6 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $18.71 | 2.4% | 53 | 49.4 | 1.07× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $17.66 | 2.4% | 49 | 52.4 | 0.94× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $15.08 | 2.4% | 68 | 61.3 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $13.64 | 2.4% | 72 | 67.8 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $13.18 | 2.4% | 52 | 70.2 | 0.74× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $13.17 | 2.4% | 67 | 70.2 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $11.74 | 2.4% | 77 | 78.8 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 196 | $7.46 | 0.4% | 23 | 22.0 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $1.63 | 0.4% | 107 | 100.7 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.55 | 0.4% | 290 | 298.6 | 0.97× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.53 | 0.4% | 311 | 309.8 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 11.9% | $0.32 | 0.4% | 533 | 513.1 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 13.1% | $0.29 | 0.4% | 513 | 566.2 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-battle-scarred) | 15.3% | $0.25 | 0.4% | 688 | 656.8 | 1.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) | 22.8% | $0.17 | 0.4% | 989 | 981.7 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1544251`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1544251)

[SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $0.17 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-battle-scarred) [s e T a.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/s%20e%20T%20a.) $10.00 $0.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 $0.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) [s e T a.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/s%20e%20T%20a.) $10.00 $13.64 1.36x 2026-11-11 21:06 UTC

[SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $0.17 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) [Incertoskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Incertoskins.army) $10.00 $0.29 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC

[MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.55 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $0.29 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) [Flyzo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Flyzo) $10.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.98% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.6% classified 5.0% Immortal 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.5% red 0.7% extraordinary 0.9% pink 1.5% Legendary 2.8% #d32ce6 1.4% Classified 1.8% #8847ff 2.3% restricted 6.9% mil spec 7.2% #4b69ff 40.3% milspec 22.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.98 on average: an expected loss of $11.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt