---
title: "Seaside Mayhem case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Seaside Mayhem ($16.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 29 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554371
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Seaside Mayhem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554371)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Seaside Mayhem

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554371?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554371?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554371) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554371?window=all)

Price · $16.00

Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $14.22 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554371?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554371?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554371) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554371?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $1,402 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $1,233 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $937 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $678 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 1,852 | $413 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 901 | $203 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 855 | $192 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 847 | $190 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 162 | $162 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 138 | $138 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $100 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $70.86 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $50.56 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $36.86 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $36.78 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $34.75 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $30.14 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $25.53 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $19.92 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $19.27 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $18.45 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $18.15 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $0.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $0.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-well-worn) | 11.5% | $0.12 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-riot-battle-scarred) | 19.8% | $0.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-battle-scarred) | 22.7% | $0.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1554371`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1554371)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $16.00 | 88.87% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 16.4% gold 0.6% extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.0% covert 6.5% #ffd700 0.1% restricted 10.7% red 3.0% Restricted 2.2% violet 2.7% #8847ff 3.7% mil spec 11.5% #4b69ff 42.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt