---
title: "Scorched Escape case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Scorched Escape ($24.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.86% from 35 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554379
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Scorched Escape](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554379)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Scorched Escape

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554379?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554379?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554379) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554379?window=all)

Price · $24.00

Advertised RTP · 88.86% · EV $21.33 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554379?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554379?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554379) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554379?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $2,090 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $1,974 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,634 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $1,281 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $925 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,724 | $578 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $298 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 847 | $283 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 826 | $275 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 236 | $242 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 216 | $220 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $133 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $102 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $82.73 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $81.53 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $59.05 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $56.29 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $55.00 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $52.60 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $51.56 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $42.05 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $35.12 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $34.12 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $27.50 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $26.70 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $26.55 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $1.10 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $0.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $0.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.49 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-battle-scarred) | 19.6% | $0.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) | 19.3% | $0.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1554379`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1554379)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $24.00 | 88.86% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.0% sunny 0.0% legendary 0.0% classified 6.4% rare 0.0% extraordinary 0.9% red 0.1% covert knife 0.1% #d32ee6 3.3% Covert 4.2% Mythical 4.7% #8847ff 4.0% restricted 1.8% #4b69ff 25.0% mil spec 7.7% Rare 19.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.86 on average: an expected loss of $11.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt