---
title: "Cocktail Clash case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cocktail Clash ($36.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.84% from 39 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554389
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Cocktail Clash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554389)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Cocktail Clash

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554389?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554389?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554389) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554389?window=all)

Price · $36.00

Advertised RTP · 88.84% · EV $31.98 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 7.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554389?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554389?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554389) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1554389?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $3,629 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $3,381 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $2,795 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $2,315 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $1,813 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,397 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $1,016 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,515 | $634 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 1,042 | $436 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 990 | $414 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 971 | $408 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 264 | $359 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 231 | $315 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $258 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 160 | $218 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $178 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $143 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $116 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $103 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $84.52 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $82.75 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $82.73 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $76.83 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $67.47 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $61.61 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $56.94 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $44.67 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $40.83 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $39.81 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $0.88 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $0.82 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.30 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 11.8% | $0.11 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-field-tested) | 22.2% | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1554389`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1554389)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $36.00 | 88.84% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% covert 20.0% gold 0.0% sunny 0.1% extraordinary 2.1% restricted 11.0% classified 1.6% Legendary 2.3% Classified 4.4% #4b69ff 16.5% blue 11.6% milspec 30.3%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.84 on average: an expected loss of $11.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt