---
title: "Charm case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Charm ($1.85) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.91% from 33 items with odds, observed 88.70% over 38.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1567618
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Charm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1567618)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Charm

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1567618?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1567618?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1567618) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1567618?window=all)

Price · $1.85

Advertised RTP · 88.91% · EV $1.64 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.70% · 38.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.29% ±3.74 5,142 openings

7 days · 88.39% ±1.56 30.6K openings

30 days · 88.70% ±1.42 38.8K openings

since tracking started · 88.70% ±1.42 38.8K openings

84.0% 88.3% 92.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1567618?window=24h) | 5,142 | 88.29% ±3.74 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1567618?window=7d) | 30.6K | 88.39% ±1.56 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1567618) | 38.8K | 88.70% ±1.42 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1567618?window=all) | 38.8K | 88.70% ±1.42 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 215 | $21.47 | 6.1% | 180 | 181.0 | 0.99× |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 126 | $12.58 | 6.1% | 281 | 308.8 | 0.91× |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 100 | $9.96 | 6.1% | 358 | 389.9 | 0.92× |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 87 | $8.65 | 6.1% | 376 | 449.0 | 0.84× |
| [Charm \| Hot Wurst charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-wurst) | 1 in 82 | $8.18 | 6.1% | 396 | 474.6 | 0.83× |
| [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 52 | $5.16 | 6.1% | 625 | 752.7 | 0.83× |
| [Charm \| Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) | 1 in 12 | $3.28 | 17.1% | 3,008 | 3334.9 | 0.90× |
| [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 10.8% | $2.61 | 17.1% | 3,771 | 4191.3 | 0.90× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 10.8% | $2.60 | 17.1% | 3,323 | 4207.2 | 0.79× |
| [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 1 in 165 | $1.65 | 0.6% | 980 | 235.4 | 4.16× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) | 1 in 152 | $1.52 | 0.6% | 1,093 | 255.5 | 4.28× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 1 in 105 | $1.05 | 0.6% | 376 | 369.7 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) | 1 in 95 | $0.95 | 0.6% | 364 | 409.0 | 0.89× |
| [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 1 in 72 | $0.72 | 0.6% | 536 | 539.4 | 0.99× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 70 | $0.70 | 0.6% | 538 | 555.0 | 0.97× |
| [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 61 | $0.61 | 0.6% | 562 | 636.5 | 0.88× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) | 1 in 55 | $0.55 | 0.6% | 688 | 706.1 | 0.97× |
| [Charm \| POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) | 1 in 53 | $0.53 | 0.6% | 704 | 732.9 | 0.96× |
| [Charm \| Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) | 1 in 50 | $0.50 | 0.6% | 736 | 776.7 | 0.95× |
| [Charm \| Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) | 1 in 36 | $0.36 | 0.6% | 1,085 | 1078.9 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) | 1 in 32 | $0.32 | 0.6% | 1,172 | 1213.7 | 0.97× |
| [Charm \| Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) | 1 in 23 | $0.23 | 0.6% | 1,716 | 1688.6 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 22 | $0.22 | 0.6% | 1,666 | 1765.1 | 0.94× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 1 in 22 | $0.22 | 0.6% | 1,882 | 1765.1 | 1.07× |
| [Charm \| Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) | 1 in 39 | $0.21 | 0.3% | 1,279 | 1007.4 | 1.27× |
| [Charm \| Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) | 1 in 39 | $0.21 | 0.3% | 1,292 | 1006.7 | 1.28× |
| [Charm \| Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) | 1 in 37 | $0.20 | 0.3% | 1,066 | 1057.1 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Big Kev charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-big-kev) | 1 in 35 | $0.19 | 0.3% | 1,197 | 1112.7 | 1.08× |
| [Charm \| Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) | 1 in 28 | $0.15 | 0.3% | 1,429 | 1409.4 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) | 1 in 28 | $0.15 | 0.3% | 1,428 | 1409.4 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 28 | $0.15 | 0.3% | 1,400 | 1409.4 | 0.99× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 1 in 26 | $0.14 | 0.3% | 1,470 | 1510.4 | 0.97× |
| [Charm \| Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) | 1 in 20 | $0.13 | 0.4% | 1,860 | 1897.6 | 0.98× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1567618`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1567618)

[Charm | Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) [Stephen Bunting \*\*\*\*\*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Stephen%20Bunting%20*******-76561198116647858) $1.85 $3.28 1.77x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [Yrath](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Yrath) $1.85 $0.15 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) [jarek486](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/jarek486) $1.85 $0.22 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) [Suppa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Suppa) $1.85 $0.21 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[Charm | Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) [PASZABISEX](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PASZABISEX) $1.85 $0.23 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC

[Charm | Big Kev charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-big-kev) Hidden $1.85 $0.19 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:12 UTC

[Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) [Voltimus](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Voltimus) $1.85 $0.22 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:12 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) [Zz9xx2](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zz9xx2) $1.85 $1.05 0.57x 2026-11-11 21:12 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) [BlazejQ96](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BlazejQ96) $1.85 $0.22 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:12 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) [hoffmanek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/hoffmanek) $1.85 $2.60 1.41x 2026-11-11 21:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $1.85 | 88.91% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.85 | 88.85% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.5% #eb4b4b 2.0% rare 4.1% Legendary 8.6% #8847ff 19.8% uncommon 34.5% #d32ce6 1.3% #4b69ff 10.0% Rare 19.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.91 on average: an expected loss of $11.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt