---
title: "Ascent case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ascent ($0.70) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.97% from 140 items with odds, observed 89.44% over 72.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568505
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Ascent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568505)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Ascent

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568505?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568505?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568505) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568505?window=all)

Price · $0.70

Advertised RTP · 88.97% · EV $0.62 from 140 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.44% · 72.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.14% ±6.24 7,269 openings

7 days · 88.77% ±2.21 57.9K openings

30 days · 89.44% ±1.98 72.2K openings

since tracking started · 89.44% ±1.98 72.2K openings

78.0% 85.0% 92.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568505?window=24h) | 7,269 | 85.14% ±6.24 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568505?window=7d) | 57.9K | 88.77% ±2.21 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568505) | 72.2K | 89.44% ±1.98 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568505?window=all) | 72.2K | 89.44% ±1.98 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 140 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) | 1 in 1,220 | $39.79 | 5.2% | 60 | 59.5 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $16.22 | 5.2% | 148 | 145.2 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 424 | $13.79 | 5.2% | 174 | 171.3 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 262 | $8.50 | 5.2% | 273 | 277.2 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 161 | $6.24 | 6.2% | 462 | 450.7 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 158 | $6.11 | 6.2% | 447 | 460.1 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $4.68 | 6.2% | 613 | 600.9 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $3.84 | 6.2% | 734 | 732.3 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 1 in 97 | $3.74 | 6.2% | 741 | 751.9 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $3.39 | 6.2% | 826 | 829.6 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $3.02 | 6.2% | 957 | 931.2 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $2.99 | 6.2% | 941 | 940.6 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $1.63 | 2.9% | 863 | 795.4 | 1.08× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $1.07 | 2.9% | 1,149 | 1211.3 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $1.05 | 2.9% | 1,246 | 1234.5 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $1.04 | 2.9% | 1,267 | 1246.1 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $0.96 | 2.9% | 1,401 | 1349.9 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.74 | 2.9% | 1,745 | 1751.3 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.72 | 2.9% | 1,817 | 1799.9 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 1,389 | $0.69 | 0.1% | 40 | 52.3 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,282 | $0.61 | 0.1% | 56 | 56.6 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,235 | $0.59 | 0.1% | 56 | 58.8 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $0.56 | 0.1% | 56 | 61.7 | 0.91× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,163 | $0.55 | 0.1% | 53 | 62.4 | 0.85× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $0.53 | 0.1% | 55 | 65.3 | 0.84× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $0.43 | 0.1% | 88 | 79.8 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $0.43 | 0.1% | 92 | 79.8 | 1.15× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $0.38 | 0.1% | 96 | 90.7 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 758 | $0.36 | 0.1% | 92 | 95.8 | 0.96× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $0.34 | 0.1% | 90 | 101.6 | 0.89× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-factory-new) | 1 in 694 | $0.33 | 0.1% | 98 | 104.5 | 0.94× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 633 | $0.30 | 0.1% | 125 | 114.7 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-well-worn) | 1 in 568 | $0.27 | 0.1% | 125 | 127.7 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 568 | $0.27 | 0.1% | 156 | 127.7 | 1.22× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 546 | $0.26 | 0.1% | 145 | 132.8 | 1.09× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-well-worn) | 1 in 546 | $0.26 | 0.1% | 104 | 132.8 | 0.78× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-field-tested) | 1 in 526 | $0.25 | 0.1% | 135 | 137.9 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-field-tested) | 1 in 526 | $0.25 | 0.1% | 130 | 137.9 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-battle-scarred) | 1 in 483 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 163 | 150.2 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 483 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 141 | 150.2 | 0.94× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-well-worn) | 1 in 483 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 129 | 150.2 | 0.86× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-field-tested) | 1 in 483 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 137 | 150.2 | 0.91× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) | 1 in 483 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 149 | 150.2 | 0.99× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 463 | $0.22 | 0.1% | 173 | 156.8 | 1.10× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 463 | $0.22 | 0.1% | 162 | 156.8 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 463 | $0.22 | 0.1% | 169 | 156.8 | 1.08× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-well-worn) | 1 in 463 | $0.22 | 0.1% | 156 | 156.8 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 442 | $0.21 | 0.1% | 166 | 164.0 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-battle-scarred) | 1 in 442 | $0.21 | 0.1% | 195 | 164.0 | 1.19× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 422 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 146 | 172.0 | 0.85× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 422 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 171 | 172.0 | 0.99× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 379 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 176 | 191.6 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 379 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 209 | 191.6 | 1.09× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-battle-scarred) | 1 in 379 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 176 | 191.6 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 337 | $0.16 | 0.1% | 227 | 215.6 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-well-worn) | 1 in 274 | $0.13 | 0.1% | 249 | 264.9 | 0.94× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 274 | $0.13 | 0.1% | 257 | 264.9 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 274 | $0.13 | 0.1% | 281 | 264.9 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 253 | $0.12 | 0.1% | 269 | 287.4 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 253 | $0.12 | 0.1% | 292 | 287.4 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 253 | $0.12 | 0.1% | 262 | 287.4 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-field-tested) | 1 in 253 | $0.12 | 0.1% | 281 | 287.4 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 253 | $0.12 | 0.1% | 273 | 287.4 | 0.95× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 253 | $0.12 | 0.1% | 302 | 287.4 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 253 | $0.12 | 0.1% | 321 | 287.4 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 211 | $0.10 | 0.1% | 344 | 344.7 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-minimal-wear) | 1 in 211 | $0.10 | 0.1% | 323 | 344.7 | 0.94× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-well-worn) | 1 in 189 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 367 | 383.2 | 0.96× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 189 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 390 | 383.2 | 1.02× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 333 | 383.2 | 0.87× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 418 | 431.1 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 168 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 440 | 431.1 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 482 | 492.8 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-battle-scarred) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 514 | 492.8 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 531 | 492.8 | 1.08× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 501 | 492.8 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Rose Nacre (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-rose-nacre-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 488 | 492.8 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 488 | 492.8 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 480 | 492.8 | 0.97× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 480 | 492.8 | 0.97× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 522 | 492.8 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 483 | 492.8 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 479 | 492.8 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 479 | 492.8 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 447 | 492.8 | 0.91× |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 485 | 492.8 | 0.98× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 499 | 492.8 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 484 | 492.8 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 503 | 492.8 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 485 | 492.8 | 0.98× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 484 | 492.8 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 485 | 492.8 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 718 | 689.5 | 1.04× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 724 | 689.5 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 660 | 689.5 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 617 | 689.5 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 688 | 689.5 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 648 | 689.5 | 0.94× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 682 | 689.5 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 708 | 689.5 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 685 | 689.5 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 717 | 689.5 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 684 | 689.5 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 689 | 689.5 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 720 | 689.5 | 1.04× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-well-worn) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 704 | 689.5 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 679 | 689.5 | 0.98× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 655 | 689.5 | 0.95× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 758 | 689.5 | 1.10× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 669 | 689.5 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 678 | 689.5 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 690 | 689.5 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 697 | 689.5 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 679 | 689.5 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 684 | 689.5 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 717 | 689.5 | 1.04× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 655 | 689.5 | 0.95× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 690 | 689.5 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 679 | 689.5 | 0.98× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 672 | 689.5 | 0.97× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 682 | 689.5 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 904 | 934.8 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 951 | 934.8 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 953 | 934.8 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-battle-scarred) | 1 in 78 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 900 | 934.8 | 0.96× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 970 | 934.8 | 1.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 940 | 934.8 | 1.01× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Cobalt Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 840 | 862.2 | 0.97× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 922 | 862.2 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 862 | 862.2 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 891 | 862.2 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 906 | 862.2 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 879 | 862.2 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 847 | 862.2 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 911 | 862.2 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Plum Netting (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 815 | 862.2 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Storm Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 894 | 862.2 | 1.04× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 862 | 862.2 | 1.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 845 | 862.2 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 855 | 862.2 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1568505`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $39.79 56.84x 2026-11-11 17:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) [zentxzentx-skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/zentxzentx-skins.army) $0.70 $39.79 56.84x 2026-11-11 09:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $39.79 56.84x 2026-11-10 23:39 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $39.79 56.84x 2026-11-10 21:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $39.79 56.84x 2026-11-10 19:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $39.79 56.84x 2026-11-10 19:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $39.79 56.84x 2026-11-10 17:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $39.79 56.84x 2026-11-10 15:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) [Pony.67skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Pony.67skins.army) $0.70 $39.79 56.84x 2026-11-10 15:34 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $39.79 56.84x 2026-11-10 14:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1568505)

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $4.68 6.69x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[P90 | Blue Tac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-battle-scarred) [fifi55brbrskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/fifi55brbrskins.army) $0.70 $0.04 0.06x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 $0.07 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-factory-new) [fifi55brbrskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/fifi55brbrskins.army) $0.70 $1.07 1.53x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[P90 | Blue Tac (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 $0.05 0.07x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-storm-camo-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $0.05 0.07x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-well-worn) [Hitoshi](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Hitoshi) $0.70 $0.05 0.07x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Cobalt Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-cobalt-grip-field-tested) [🍌BAMBO🍌](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9F%8D%8CBAMBO%F0%9F%8D%8C) $0.70 $0.04 0.06x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[P90 | Blue Tac (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-minimal-wear) [PinPad](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PinPad) $0.70 $0.05 0.07x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $1.04 1.49x 2026-11-11 22:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $0.70 | 88.97% | 140 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.1% Mythical 3.6% classified 1.3% rare 0.6% Classified 0.8% violet 2.3% #4b69ff 1.2% Rare 4.3% blue 3.6% uncommon 3.8% restricted 2.5% Uncommon 2.7% #5e98d9 11.3% milspec 1.3% common 4.8% industrial 3.3% #b0c3d9 26.3% Common 3.7% light blue 1.4% consumer 9.0% gray 9.9% blueLight 0.9% grey 1.2% best hit $39.79 (56.84x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.97 on average: an expected loss of $11.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt