---
title: "Boreal case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Boreal ($0.45) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.01% from 145 items with odds, observed 89.95% over 73.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568604
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Boreal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568604)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Boreal

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568604?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568604?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568604) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568604?window=all)

Price · $0.45

Advertised RTP · 89.01% · EV $0.40 from 145 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.95% · 73.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.78% ±6.16 8,324 openings

7 days · 88.82% ±2.31 59.1K openings

30 days · 89.95% ±2.07 73.6K openings

since tracking started · 89.95% ±2.07 73.6K openings

85.0% 91.8% 98.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568604?window=24h) | 8,324 | 91.78% ±6.16 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568604?window=7d) | 59.1K | 88.82% ±2.31 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568604) | 73.6K | 89.95% ±2.07 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568604?window=all) | 73.6K | 89.95% ±2.07 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 145 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,639 | $32.87 | 5.0% | 48 | 45.1 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 775 | $15.52 | 5.0% | 92 | 95.4 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 377 | $7.55 | 5.0% | 200 | 196.0 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 1 in 372 | $7.43 | 5.0% | 209 | 199.0 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 228 | $4.57 | 5.0% | 330 | 324.0 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 169 | $3.80 | 5.6% | 450 | 437.9 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 168 | $3.78 | 5.6% | 450 | 440.1 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 157 | $3.54 | 5.6% | 446 | 470.4 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $1.91 | 5.6% | 861 | 871.4 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $1.65 | 5.6% | 1,045 | 1008.9 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $1.64 | 5.6% | 1,004 | 1014.9 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $1.17 | 5.6% | 1,405 | 1422.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $0.81 | 5.6% | 2,112 | 2054.9 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $0.76 | 1.7% | 647 | 649.4 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $0.76 | 1.7% | 667 | 648.7 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $0.73 | 1.7% | 708 | 675.3 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $0.73 | 1.7% | 697 | 675.3 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.70 | 1.7% | 744 | 704.2 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $0.70 | 1.7% | 714 | 704.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 97 | $0.65 | 1.7% | 729 | 758.9 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $0.64 | 1.7% | 794 | 770.8 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $0.57 | 1.7% | 881 | 864.7 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $0.55 | 1.7% | 898 | 896.5 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $0.44 | 1.7% | 1,103 | 1120.6 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $0.41 | 1.7% | 1,186 | 1202.7 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-well-worn) | 1 in 840 | $0.35 | 0.1% | 101 | 88.0 | 1.15× |
| [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-factory-new) | 1 in 1,010 | $0.34 | 0.1% | 71 | 73.2 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-well-worn) | 1 in 952 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 69 | 77.7 | 0.89× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 952 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 69 | 77.7 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-battle-scarred) | 1 in 893 | $0.30 | 0.1% | 87 | 82.8 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-well-worn) | 1 in 893 | $0.30 | 0.1% | 82 | 82.8 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $0.30 | 0.1% | 79 | 82.8 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 862 | $0.29 | 0.1% | 89 | 85.8 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 775 | $0.26 | 0.1% | 110 | 95.4 | 1.15× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $0.21 | 0.1% | 109 | 118.4 | 0.92× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 595 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 133 | 124.3 | 1.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-garter-9-factory-new) | 1 in 595 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 135 | 124.3 | 1.09× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-well-worn) | 1 in 565 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 131 | 130.9 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Mustard Gas (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-factory-new) | 1 in 565 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 148 | 130.9 | 1.13× |
| [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 565 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 132 | 130.9 | 1.01× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-leafhopper-factory-new) | 1 in 565 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 155 | 130.9 | 1.18× |
| [Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-acid-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 535 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 115 | 138.3 | 0.83× |
| [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 535 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 141 | 138.3 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tiger-tear-well-worn) | 1 in 505 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 140 | 146.5 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tiger-tear-factory-new) | 1 in 505 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 178 | 146.5 | 1.22× |
| [P2000 \| Marsh (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-factory-new) | 1 in 505 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 129 | 146.5 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) | 1 in 505 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 160 | 146.5 | 1.09× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 505 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 142 | 146.5 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-well-worn) | 1 in 446 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 193 | 165.7 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) | 1 in 388 | $0.13 | 0.1% | 175 | 190.8 | 0.92× |
| [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-well-worn) | 1 in 328 | $0.11 | 0.1% | 178 | 225.6 | 0.79× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-field-tested) | 1 in 298 | $0.10 | 0.1% | 213 | 248.5 | 0.86× |
| [P90 \| Mustard Gas (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-well-worn) | 1 in 298 | $0.10 | 0.1% | 242 | 248.5 | 0.97× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-leafhopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 298 | $0.10 | 0.1% | 237 | 248.5 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-garter-9-minimal-wear) | 1 in 298 | $0.10 | 0.1% | 266 | 248.5 | 1.07× |
| [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 298 | $0.10 | 0.1% | 220 | 248.5 | 0.89× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 268 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 279 | 275.9 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Marsh (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 268 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 271 | 275.9 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-field-tested) | 1 in 268 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 277 | 275.9 | 1.00× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 238 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 336 | 310.7 | 1.08× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-leafhopper-well-worn) | 1 in 238 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 326 | 310.7 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 302 | 310.7 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-acid-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 303 | 310.7 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-garter-9-well-worn) | 1 in 238 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 287 | 310.7 | 0.92× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 238 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 342 | 310.7 | 1.10× |
| [FAMAS \| Palm (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 208 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 336 | 355.1 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-factory-new) | 1 in 208 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 344 | 355.1 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-green-ceramic-factory-new) | 1 in 208 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 357 | 355.1 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 208 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 358 | 355.1 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tiger-tear-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 361 | 355.1 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 208 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 352 | 355.1 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 357 | 355.1 | 1.01× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 399 | 414.2 | 0.96× |
| [M249 \| Sage Camo (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 421 | 414.2 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-green-swirl-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 430 | 414.2 | 1.04× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-cell-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 379 | 414.2 | 0.91× |
| [Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-raw-ceramic-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 440 | 414.2 | 1.06× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-oxide-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 426 | 414.2 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Commando Company (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-commando-company-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 445 | 414.2 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Copper Oxide (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-copper-oxide-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 438 | 414.2 | 1.06× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-leafhopper-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 381 | 414.2 | 0.92× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tiger-tear-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 410 | 414.2 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Mustard Gas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 393 | 414.2 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-garter-9-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 424 | 414.2 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Mustard Gas (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 431 | 414.2 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Pine (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pine-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 411 | 414.2 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 452 | 414.2 | 1.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 413 | 414.2 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Marsh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 387 | 414.2 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 394 | 414.2 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-acid-dart-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 414 | 414.2 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Marsh (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-well-worn) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 433 | 414.2 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-acid-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 417 | 414.2 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tiger-tear-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 426 | 414.2 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-oxide-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 614 | 621.3 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Pine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 652 | 621.3 | 1.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-green-ceramic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 645 | 621.3 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-green-swirl-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 599 | 621.3 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-green-swirl-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 618 | 621.3 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 621 | 621.3 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Copper Oxide (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-copper-oxide-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 648 | 621.3 | 1.04× |
| [Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-raw-ceramic-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 598 | 621.3 | 0.96× |
| [M249 \| Sage Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 599 | 621.3 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Pine (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pine-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 628 | 621.3 | 1.01× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 633 | 621.3 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-green-ceramic-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 658 | 621.3 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Palm (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-palm-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 635 | 621.3 | 1.02× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 627 | 621.3 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 548 | 621.3 | 0.88× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-cell-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 613 | 621.3 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-oxide-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 591 | 621.3 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Commando Company (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 594 | 621.3 | 0.96× |
| [M249 \| Sage Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 636 | 621.3 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Commando Company (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-commando-company-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 615 | 621.3 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-cell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 581 | 621.3 | 0.94× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-oxide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 619 | 621.3 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-acid-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 574 | 621.3 | 0.92× |
| [Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-garter-9-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 634 | 621.3 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Marsh (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 650 | 621.3 | 1.05× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-leafhopper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 639 | 621.3 | 1.03× |
| [Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-raw-ceramic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 879 | 918.7 | 0.96× |
| [M249 \| Sage Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 813 | 828.5 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Palm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-palm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 846 | 828.5 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Copper Oxide (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-copper-oxide-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 872 | 828.5 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Commando Company (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-commando-company-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 819 | 828.5 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Commando Company (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-commando-company-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 812 | 828.5 | 0.98× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-cell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 817 | 828.5 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-green-swirl-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 827 | 828.5 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Cell (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-cell-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 819 | 828.5 | 0.99× |
| [Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-raw-ceramic-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 784 | 828.5 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Pine (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pine-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 788 | 828.5 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 821 | 828.5 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Oxide (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-oxide-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 825 | 828.5 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Copper Oxide (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-copper-oxide-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 835 | 828.5 | 1.01× |
| [Negev \| Raw Ceramic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-raw-ceramic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 829 | 828.5 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Copper Oxide (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-copper-oxide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 803 | 828.5 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-green-ceramic-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 850 | 828.5 | 1.03× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 820 | 828.5 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 800 | 828.5 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 864 | 828.5 | 1.04× |
| [M249 \| Sage Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sage-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 820 | 828.5 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Pine (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 799 | 828.5 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-green-ceramic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 859 | 828.5 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Green Swirl (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-green-swirl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 878 | 828.5 | 1.06× |
| [Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 820 | 828.5 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1568604`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [M4Ci0L-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/M4Ci0L-) $0.45 $32.87 73.04x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 $32.87 73.04x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 $32.87 73.04x 2026-11-11 10:10 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 $32.87 73.04x 2026-11-11 07:21 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 $32.87 73.04x 2026-11-10 22:13 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 $32.87 73.04x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [Von Hairo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Von%20Hairo) $0.45 $32.87 73.04x 2026-11-10 20:03 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 $32.87 73.04x 2026-11-10 14:13 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 $32.87 73.04x 2026-11-10 09:53 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 $32.87 73.04x 2026-11-10 07:10 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1568604)

[UMP-45 | Green Swirl (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-green-swirl-minimal-wear) [Grzechczenko](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Grzechczenko) $0.45 $0.03 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-minimal-wear) [adamos art. 286 § 1 k.k.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamos%20art.%20286%20%C2%A7%201%20k.k.) $0.45 $0.06 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[Negev | Raw Ceramic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-raw-ceramic-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $0.03 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[G3SG1 | Green Cell (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-cell-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[MAG-7 | Copper Oxide (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-oxide-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) [MlodyG skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MlodyG%20skins.army) $0.45 $0.30 0.67x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC

[UMP-45 | Green Swirl (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-green-swirl-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 $0.06 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[P250 | Copper Oxide (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-copper-oxide-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $0.03 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[MAG-7 | Copper Oxide (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-oxide-well-worn) Hidden $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[AUG | Commando Company (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-commando-company-battle-scarred) [Xavi\_Skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Xavi_Skins.army) $0.45 $0.03 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $0.45 | 89.01% | 145 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.9% #d32ce6 1.0% #8847ff 9.2% blue 3.8% uncommon 1.4% #4b69ff 6.5% Uncommon 3.4% Rare 2.8% #5e98d9 13.5% common 2.6% industrial 2.9% blueLight 0.2% milspec 0.3% #b0c3d9 46.9% consumer 2.6% Common 2.0% best hit $32.87 (73.04x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.01 on average: an expected loss of $10.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt