---
title: "Radiant case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Radiant ($0.70) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.85% from 140 items with odds, observed 88.94% over 48.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568707
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Radiant](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568707)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Radiant

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568707?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568707?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568707) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568707?window=all)

Price · $0.70

Advertised RTP · 88.85% · EV $0.62 from 140 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.94% · 48.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 11.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.18% ±8.11 6,670 openings

7 days · 88.72% ±3.40 39.7K openings

30 days · 88.94% ±3.08 48.6K openings

since tracking started · 88.94% ±3.08 48.6K openings

75.5% 84.3% 93.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568707?window=24h) | 6,670 | 84.18% ±8.11 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568707?window=7d) | 39.7K | 88.72% ±3.40 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568707) | 48.6K | 88.94% ±3.08 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1568707?window=all) | 48.6K | 88.94% ±3.08 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 140 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) | 1 in 1,299 | $56.43 | 7.0% | 28 | 37.5 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 541 | $23.47 | 7.0% | 64 | 90.1 | 0.71× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-factory-new) | 1 in 319 | $13.86 | 7.0% | 121 | 152.4 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 219 | $9.48 | 7.0% | 182 | 222.5 | 0.82× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $7.10 | 7.0% | 228 | 297.0 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 152 | $6.59 | 7.0% | 272 | 320.3 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 127 | $5.50 | 7.0% | 306 | 383.6 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $5.43 | 7.0% | 304 | 388.5 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $5.40 | 7.0% | 267 | 390.4 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 408 | $2.88 | 1.1% | 371 | 119.3 | 3.11× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 385 | $2.71 | 1.1% | 406 | 126.6 | 3.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-well-worn) | 1 in 348 | $2.46 | 1.1% | 110 | 139.7 | 0.79× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 302 | $2.13 | 1.1% | 135 | 161.1 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) | 1 in 285 | $2.01 | 1.1% | 151 | 170.9 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 190 | $1.34 | 1.1% | 204 | 256.1 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 190 | $1.34 | 1.1% | 207 | 256.1 | 0.81× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-factory-new) | 1 in 190 | $1.34 | 1.1% | 191 | 256.1 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 160 | $1.13 | 1.1% | 236 | 303.8 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $1.08 | 1.1% | 297 | 317.9 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $1.02 | 1.1% | 300 | 336.9 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) | 1 in 128 | $0.90 | 1.1% | 306 | 381.7 | 0.80× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $0.90 | 1.1% | 291 | 381.7 | 0.76× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 106 | $0.75 | 1.1% | 376 | 458.1 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $0.72 | 1.1% | 380 | 477.1 | 0.80× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) | 1 in 99 | $0.70 | 1.1% | 391 | 490.7 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $0.58 | 1.1% | 471 | 592.0 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $0.51 | 1.1% | 552 | 673.3 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $0.44 | 0.5% | 508 | 371.9 | 1.37× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $0.44 | 0.5% | 489 | 371.9 | 1.31× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $0.42 | 0.5% | 494 | 389.4 | 1.27× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $0.41 | 0.5% | 296 | 399.2 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $0.39 | 0.5% | 296 | 419.6 | 0.71× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $0.39 | 0.5% | 282 | 419.6 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $0.33 | 0.5% | 324 | 495.6 | 0.65× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $0.33 | 0.5% | 315 | 495.6 | 0.64× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Well-Worn) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $0.32 | 0.5% | 394 | 511.2 | 0.77× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $0.30 | 0.5% | 376 | 545.2 | 0.69× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $0.22 | 0.5% | 495 | 743.4 | 0.67× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $0.22 | 0.5% | 532 | 743.4 | 0.72× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $0.21 | 0.5% | 510 | 778.9 | 0.65× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $0.20 | 0.5% | 554 | 817.8 | 0.68× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $0.20 | 0.5% | 452 | 817.8 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 666 | 860.7 | 0.77× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 631 | 860.7 | 0.73× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 634 | 860.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 637 | 860.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 548 | 860.7 | 0.64× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.18 | 0.5% | 664 | 908.9 | 0.73× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $0.17 | 0.5% | 658 | 961.9 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $0.17 | 0.5% | 672 | 961.9 | 0.70× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $0.17 | 0.5% | 708 | 961.9 | 0.74× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $0.17 | 0.5% | 673 | 961.9 | 0.70× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-battle-scarred) | 1 in 461 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 444 | 105.6 | 4.20× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-battle-scarred) | 1 in 461 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 388 | 105.6 | 3.67× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) | 1 in 461 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 407 | 105.6 | 3.85× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 461 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 422 | 105.6 | 3.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-factory-new) | 1 in 461 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 393 | 105.6 | 3.72× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 461 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 344 | 105.6 | 3.26× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-factory-new) | 1 in 246 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 178 | 197.6 | 0.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-well-worn) | 1 in 246 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 159 | 197.6 | 0.80× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 246 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 399 | 197.6 | 2.02× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 246 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 370 | 197.6 | 1.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) | 1 in 246 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 276 | 197.6 | 1.40× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 216 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 248 | 225.9 | 1.10× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-factory-new) | 1 in 216 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 199 | 225.9 | 0.88× |
| [MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-bronzer-factory-new) | 1 in 216 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 179 | 225.9 | 0.79× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 216 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 292 | 225.9 | 1.29× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 442 | 263.9 | 1.68× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 340 | 263.9 | 1.29× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 316 | 263.9 | 1.20× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 292 | 263.9 | 1.11× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-well-worn) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 265 | 263.9 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-well-worn) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 208 | 263.9 | 0.79× |
| [XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-canvas-cloud-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 164 | 263.9 | 0.62× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 163 | 263.9 | 0.62× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 203 | 263.9 | 0.77× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 150 | 263.9 | 0.57× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 416 | 263.9 | 1.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 401 | 263.9 | 1.52× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 368 | 263.9 | 1.39× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-well-worn) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 339 | 263.9 | 1.28× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 329 | 263.9 | 1.25× |
| [XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-canvas-cloud-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 349 | 395.8 | 0.88× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 361 | 395.8 | 0.91× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 361 | 395.8 | 0.91× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 279 | 395.8 | 0.70× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 260 | 395.8 | 0.66× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 123 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 249 | 395.8 | 0.63× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 218 | 395.8 | 0.55× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 399 | 395.8 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 404 | 395.8 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $0.04 | 0.1% | 535 | 395.8 | 1.35× |
| [Nova \| Marsh Grass (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-marsh-grass-factory-new) | 1 in 184 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 194 | 264.3 | 0.73× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 459 | 261.4 | 1.76× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 429 | 261.4 | 1.64× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 410 | 261.4 | 1.57× |
| [Nova \| Marsh Grass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-marsh-grass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 448 | 261.4 | 1.71× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 445 | 261.4 | 1.70× |
| [MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-bronzer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 410 | 261.4 | 1.57× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-autumn-thicket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 452 | 261.4 | 1.73× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 468 | 261.4 | 1.79× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 439 | 261.4 | 1.68× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 450 | 261.4 | 1.72× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 344 | 261.4 | 1.32× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 354 | 261.4 | 1.35× |
| [Nova \| Marsh Grass (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-marsh-grass-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 352 | 261.4 | 1.35× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 336 | 261.4 | 1.29× |
| [XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-canvas-cloud-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 331 | 261.4 | 1.27× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 356 | 261.4 | 1.36× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 361 | 261.4 | 1.38× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 365 | 261.4 | 1.40× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 350 | 261.4 | 1.34× |
| [XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-canvas-cloud-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 340 | 261.4 | 1.30× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 335 | 261.4 | 1.28× |
| [MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-bronzer-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 352 | 261.4 | 1.35× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 329 | 261.4 | 1.26× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 330 | 261.4 | 1.26× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-autumn-thicket-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 329 | 261.4 | 1.26× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 354 | 261.4 | 1.35× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Wood Block Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-wood-block-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 344 | 261.4 | 1.32× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 351 | 261.4 | 1.34× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 376 | 261.4 | 1.44× |
| [MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-bronzer-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 360 | 261.4 | 1.38× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-autumn-thicket-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 379 | 261.4 | 1.45× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 316 | 261.4 | 1.21× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pink Pearl (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pink-pearl-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 321 | 261.4 | 1.23× |
| [XM1014 \| Canvas Cloud (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-canvas-cloud-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 331 | 261.4 | 1.27× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-autumn-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 302 | 261.4 | 1.16× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 298 | 261.4 | 1.14× |
| [Nova \| Marsh Grass (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-marsh-grass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 283 | 261.4 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 287 | 261.4 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Multi-Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-multi-terrain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 259 | 261.4 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| BorDeux (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-bordeux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 231 | 261.4 | 0.88× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 207 | 261.4 | 0.79× |
| [MAC-10 \| Bronzer (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-bronzer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 221 | 261.4 | 0.85× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 202 | 261.4 | 0.77× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 193 | 261.4 | 0.74× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 208 | 261.4 | 0.80× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Autumn Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-autumn-thicket-factory-new) | 1 in 186 | $0.03 | 0.0% | 167 | 261.4 | 0.64× |
| [Nova \| Marsh Grass (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-marsh-grass-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 459 | 389.0 | 1.18× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1568707`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) [SweetTatusiek2115\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SweetTatusiek2115_skins.army) $0.70 $76.03 108.6x 2026-11-09 11:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) [klops2115](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/klops2115) $0.70 $76.03 108.6x 2026-11-08 23:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) [K R U P I E R](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/K%20R%20U%20P%20I%20E%20R) $0.70 $76.03 108.6x 2026-11-08 17:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $76.03 108.6x 2026-11-08 16:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) [cycaty\_snajper. skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cycaty_snajper.%20skins.army) $0.70 $76.03 108.6x 2026-11-08 09:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) [『skins.army』CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E3%80%8Eskins.army%E3%80%8FCS2.ME) $0.70 $76.03 108.6x 2026-11-08 09:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $76.03 108.6x 2026-11-07 23:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) [ⓘⓒⓨ skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%93%98%E2%93%92%E2%93%A8%20skins.army) $0.70 $76.03 108.6x 2026-11-07 08:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $76.03 108.6x 2026-11-06 21:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-factory-new) [jongmen. CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/jongmen.%20CS2.ME) $0.70 $76.03 108.6x 2026-11-06 21:52 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1568707)

[P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $0.19 0.27x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[G3SG1 | Red Jasper (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 $0.04 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 $2.01 2.87x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-factory-new) [lokarest](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/lokarest) $0.70 $0.19 0.27x 2026-11-11 20:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $1.34 1.91x 2026-11-11 20:42 UTC

[MP7 | Short Ochre (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $0.03 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:42 UTC

[P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) [Niwekk SKINS skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Niwekk%20SKINS%20skins.army) $0.70 $0.19 0.27x 2026-11-11 20:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) Hidden $0.70 $0.17 0.24x 2026-11-11 20:42 UTC

[Galil AR | O-Ranger (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-factory-new) Hidden $0.70 $0.22 0.31x 2026-11-11 20:42 UTC

[P250 | Sedimentary (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-minimal-wear) [BIG oro](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BIG%20oro) $0.70 $0.07 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $0.70 | 88.85% | 140 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $0.70 | 88.96% | 140 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 2.0% Legendary 0.2% Mythical 2.6% violet 4.7% uncommon 0.5% blue 12.1% Rare 10.9% milspec 3.6% Mil Spec 1.0% Uncommon 3.8% #4b69ff 4.8% common 1.5% blueLight 6.3% #5e98d9 6.3% industrial 4.2% Common 5.2% consumer 22.5% light blue 0.5% Industrial 0.5% #b0c3d9 6.7% best hit $76.03 (108.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.85 on average: an expected loss of $11.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt