---
title: "Night Alley case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Night Alley ($2.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 32 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584123
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Night Alley](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584123)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Night Alley

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584123?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584123?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584123) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584123?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $2.22 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 7.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584123?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584123?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584123) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584123?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $248 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $243 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $231 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $196 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $156 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $91.13 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $49.79 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $32.09 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Hot Wurst charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-wurst) | 1 in 1,053 | $28.73 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 1,020 | $27.69 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 971 | $26.48 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 180 | $23.38 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 146 | $18.96 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $12.99 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $9.72 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $6.47 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $5.63 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $5.51 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $5.27 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $5.17 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $4.78 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.34 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $3.11 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.97 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.94 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.47 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $0.46 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.38 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.20 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-battle-scarred) | 14.3% | $0.08 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-well-worn) | 14.3% | $0.08 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-battle-scarred) | 21.8% | $0.06 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1584123`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1584123)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.92% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 21.8% covert knife 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 5.6% classified 7.5% uncommon 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.1% pink 8.9% restricted 3.5% violet 6.8% Rare 2.4% milspec 4.5% #8847ff 4.6% blue 5.7% #4b69ff 28.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt