---
title: "Scarlet Flow case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Scarlet Flow ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 28 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584131
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Scarlet Flow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584131)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Scarlet Flow

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584131?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584131?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584131) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584131?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $4.44 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584131?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584131?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584131) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584131?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $432 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $387 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $285 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $284 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $212 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 3,571 | $143 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $119 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $66.02 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-well-worn) | 1 in 1,471 | $58.70 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $54.16 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,351 | $53.77 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $45.34 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 1 in 107 | $35.49 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $24.78 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $13.32 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $12.33 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $12.30 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $10.11 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $9.00 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $8.24 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.42 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $5.64 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.42 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $0.64 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Turf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.30 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-field-tested) | 13.4% | $0.13 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-well-worn) | 20.2% | $0.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-battle-scarred) | 19.3% | $0.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1584131`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1584131)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $5.00 | 88.88% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.2% extraordinary 0.0% covert knife 0.0% Covert 0.0% rare 0.1% Classified 0.1% classified 7.0% restricted 2.5% Ancient 6.3% #d32ce6 3.9% pink 5.0% Mythical 5.7% Legendary 5.9% #8847ff 2.7% #4b69ff 39.4% milspec 19.3%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt