---
title: "Hype Beat case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hype Beat ($8.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.83% from 29 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584140
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Hype Beat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584140)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Hype Beat

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584140?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584140?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584140) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584140?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 88.83% · EV $7.11 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584140?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584140?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584140) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1584140?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $730 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $689 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $551 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $397 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $254 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,538 | $116 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 1,351 | $102 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,351 | $102 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,136 | $85.61 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $84.91 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $73.00 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $63.17 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $52.64 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $40.61 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $20.36 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $19.67 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $18.26 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $17.02 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $17.02 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $12.33 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $11.32 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $9.24 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $8.92 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $8.82 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.65 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.41 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-field-tested) | 10.6% | $0.20 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) | 21.2% | $0.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 24.6% | $0.09 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1584140`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1584140)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $8.00 | 88.83% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.0% epic 0.0% covert 7.4% covert knife 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.1% rare 0.1% Ancient 0.1% classified 15.1% uncommon 6.7% restricted 19.5% violet 5.2% blue 21.2% #4b69ff 24.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.83 on average: an expected loss of $11.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt