---
title: "Kosior case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Kosior ($2.80) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.00% from 23 items with odds, observed 87.27% over 39K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585429
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Kosior](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585429)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Kosior

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585429?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585429?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585429) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585429?window=all)

Price · $2.80

Advertised RTP · 89.00% · EV $2.49 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.27% · 39K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.43% ±6.68 4,572 openings

7 days · 88.21% ±2.56 31K openings

30 days · 87.27% ±2.29 39K openings

since tracking started · 87.27% ±2.29 39K openings

77.0% 84.5% 92.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585429?window=24h) | 4,572 | 84.43% ±6.68 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585429?window=7d) | 31K | 88.21% ±2.56 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585429) | 39K | 87.27% ±2.29 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585429?window=all) | 39K | 87.27% ±2.29 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $181 | 1.0% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $115 | 1.0% | 6 | 8.6 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 568 | $82.43 | 5.8% | 65 | 68.7 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 398 | $57.88 | 5.8% | 100 | 98.0 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 202 | $29.27 | 5.8% | 168 | 193.2 | 0.87× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-factory-new) | 1 in 165 | $23.87 | 5.8% | 202 | 236.9 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 129 | $18.74 | 5.8% | 307 | 302.1 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $15.22 | 5.8% | 377 | 371.9 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $13.26 | 5.8% | 430 | 427.0 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $7.84 | 5.8% | 754 | 721.6 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $5.54 | 7.8% | 1,391 | 1366.8 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $5.30 | 7.8% | 1,381 | 1428.4 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $3.91 | 7.8% | 1,950 | 1936.6 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $3.49 | 7.8% | 2,136 | 2169.6 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $2.73 | 7.8% | 2,825 | 2773.3 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $1.72 | 1.6% | 886 | 879.3 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $1.13 | 1.6% | 1,363 | 1338.3 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.61 | 1.6% | 2,481 | 2479.1 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.57 | 1.6% | 2,550 | 2653.1 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.46 | 1.6% | 3,259 | 3287.7 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.39 | 1.6% | 3,901 | 3877.8 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-field-tested) | 10.8% | $0.36 | 1.6% | 4,203 | 4201.0 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-field-tested) | 21.0% | $0.19 | 1.6% | 8,289 | 8203.7 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1585429`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [CzarnykonhaZarduCase.gift](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/CzarnykonhaZarduCase.gift) $2.80 $181 64.62x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [szop](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/szop) $2.80 $181 64.62x 2026-11-09 22:19 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [Czurson skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Czurson%20skins.army) $2.80 $181 64.62x 2026-11-07 18:04 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $2.80 $181 64.62x 2026-11-06 22:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1585429)

[Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-field-tested) Hidden $2.80 $0.36 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) Hidden $2.80 $0.39 0.14x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) [mefedronowe love](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mefedronowe%20love) $2.80 $0.57 0.20x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-well-worn) [Gerdzio skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Gerdzio%20skins.army) $2.80 $2.73 0.98x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[MP7 | Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-minimal-wear) [kamilogerskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kamilogerskins.army) $2.80 $0.46 0.16x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) [Ufdtgy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Ufdtgy) $2.80 $0.39 0.14x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[MP7 | Akoben (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-minimal-wear) [KIMBO “skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KIMBO%20%E2%80%9Cskins.army%E2%80%9D) $2.80 $0.46 0.16x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) Hidden $2.80 $7.84 2.80x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC

[G3SG1 | Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-field-tested) [MINION skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MINION%20skins.army) $2.80 $0.19 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC

[MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) [mefedronowe love](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mefedronowe%20love) $2.80 $0.57 0.20x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.80 | 89.00% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Immortal 0.0% Covert 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.2% covert 0.3% mil spec 25.7% Mythical 0.6% blue 0.8% classified 5.7% #d32ce6 6.8% restricted 3.5% #8847ff 16.1% #4b69ff 19.4% #87c7ff 21.0% best hit $181 (64.62x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.00 on average: an expected loss of $11.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt