--- title: "xSpeedy case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "xSpeedy ($7.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.91% from 26 items with odds, observed 93.03% over 5,514 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585434 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [xSpeedy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585434) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · xSpeedy A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585434?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585434?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585434) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585434?window=all) Price · $7.00 Advertised RTP · 88.91% · EV $6.22 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.03% · 5,514 openings, odds method Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.17% ±15.62 654 openings 7 days · 90.29% ±5.95 4,508 openings 30 days · 93.03% ±5.38 5,514 openings since tracking started · 93.03% ±5.38 5,514 openings 69.0% 85.2% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585434?window=24h) | 654 | 85.17% ±15.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585434?window=7d) | 4,508 | 90.29% ±5.95 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585434) | 5,514 | 93.03% ±5.38 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585434?window=all) | 5,514 | 93.03% ±5.38 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,521 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $333 | 1.4% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.79× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,125 | $265 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,852 | $158 | 1.4% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.01× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,754 | $150 | 1.4% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.59× | | [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-factory-new) | 1 in 1,754 | $148 | 1.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $114 | 1.4% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $75.89 | 1.4% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.46× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 226 | $68.94 | 4.9% | 22 | 24.4 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $59.31 | 4.9% | 30 | 28.4 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 190 | $57.88 | 4.9% | 36 | 29.1 | 1.24× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 149 | $45.38 | 4.9% | 43 | 37.1 | 1.16× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $37.42 | 4.9% | 53 | 45.0 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $33.62 | 4.9% | 54 | 50.1 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $29.17 | 4.9% | 46 | 57.7 | 0.80× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $15.17 | 4.9% | 107 | 111.0 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $13.67 | 8.0% | 196 | 202.0 | 0.97× | | [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $10.59 | 8.0% | 278 | 260.6 | 1.07× | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $10.22 | 8.0% | 289 | 270.1 | 1.07× | | [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $9.53 | 8.0% | 296 | 289.7 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $9.20 | 8.0% | 322 | 300.1 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $7.15 | 8.0% | 368 | 386.1 | 0.95× | | [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.89 | 0.6% | 240 | 232.0 | 1.03× | | [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.57 | 0.6% | 401 | 362.2 | 1.11× | | [SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.51 | 0.6% | 384 | 404.9 | 0.95× | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.40 | 0.6% | 505 | 516.2 | 0.98× | | [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-well-worn) | 34.3% | $0.11 | 0.6% | 1,825 | 1891.5 | 0.96× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1585434`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1585434) [P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) [Ĝ҉Ǻ҉Ӎ҉乇\_〇√乇Ʀ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%C4%9C%D2%89%C7%BA%D2%89%D3%8D%D2%89%E4%B9%87_%E3%80%87%E2%88%9A%E4%B9%87%C6%A6) $7.00 $0.57 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC [AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [Will011101](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Will011101) $7.00 $7.15 1.02x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC [MAC-10 | Light Box (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-well-worn) [Mathiiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mathiiii) $7.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC [MAC-10 | Light Box (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-well-worn) [Jarosław S](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jaros%C5%82aw%20S) $7.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC [MAC-10 | Light Box (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-well-worn) [Mathiiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mathiiii) $7.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) [Jarosław S](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jaros%C5%82aw%20S) $7.00 $29.17 4.17x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-trail-blazer-battle-scarred) [Mathiiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mathiiii) $7.00 $0.51 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC [MAC-10 | Light Box (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-well-worn) [Jarosław S](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jaros%C5%82aw%20S) $7.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC [AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [Cookie'S](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Cookie'S) $7.00 $7.15 1.02x 2026-11-11 20:21 UTC [Glock-18 | Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) [DGR](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DGR) $7.00 $0.89 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.00 | 88.91% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 3 9.3% sunny 0.0% covert knife 0.0% covert 2.4% rare 7.1% classified 12.6% mil spec 0.8% Mythical 1.0% pink 3.7% #d32ee6 5.2% #8847ff 5.4% Rare 4.2% violet 6.6% milspec 7.3% #4b69ff 34.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.91 on average: an expected loss of $11.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt