---
title: "Fly case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fly ($3.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.90% from 28 items with odds, observed 86.73% over 15.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585438
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Fly](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585438)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Fly

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585438?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585438?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585438) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585438?window=all)

Price · $3.50

Advertised RTP · 88.90% · EV $3.11 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.73% · 15.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.44% ±9.83 2,209 openings

7 days · 86.50% ±4.06 13K openings

30 days · 86.73% ±3.68 15.8K openings

since tracking started · 86.73% ±3.68 15.8K openings

74.0% 84.5% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585438?window=24h) | 2,209 | 84.44% ±9.83 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585438?window=7d) | 13K | 86.50% ±4.06 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585438) | 15.8K | 86.73% ±3.68 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585438?window=all) | 15.8K | 86.73% ±3.68 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $214 | 1.4% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.95× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $150 | 1.4% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 3,226 | $141 | 1.4% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $128 | 1.4% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 2,564 | $110 | 1.4% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,515 | $66.10 | 1.4% | 5 | 10.5 | 0.48× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,031 | $44.84 | 1.4% | 20 | 15.4 | 1.30× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $36.11 | 1.4% | 18 | 19.0 | 0.95× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-well-worn) | 1 in 820 | $35.44 | 1.4% | 20 | 19.3 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 180 | $33.84 | 6.1% | 90 | 88.3 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $31.03 | 6.1% | 97 | 96.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 150 | $28.22 | 6.1% | 99 | 105.8 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $23.02 | 6.1% | 115 | 129.8 | 0.89× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $22.44 | 6.1% | 127 | 133.1 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 81 | $15.25 | 6.1% | 194 | 196.0 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 74 | $13.99 | 6.1% | 219 | 213.6 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $7.02 | 5.7% | 395 | 402.5 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.95 | 5.7% | 440 | 474.9 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $5.75 | 5.7% | 480 | 491.4 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $4.89 | 5.7% | 584 | 577.9 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $4.65 | 5.7% | 651 | 607.7 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $4.41 | 5.7% | 665 | 640.8 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $1.58 | 1.8% | 554 | 553.3 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1.08 | 1.8% | 824 | 809.4 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 12.3% | $0.45 | 1.8% | 1,863 | 1942.4 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 13.5% | $0.41 | 1.8% | 2,195 | 2131.9 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-slag-well-worn) | 19.0% | $0.29 | 1.8% | 3,023 | 3014.2 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-battle-scarred) | 19.9% | $0.28 | 1.8% | 3,147 | 3147.5 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1585438`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $214 61.27x 2026-11-08 14:00 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) [PinPad](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PinPad) $3.50 $214 61.27x 2026-11-05 11:45 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) [ciartas](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ciartas) $3.50 $214 61.27x 2026-11-03 16:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1585438)

[XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) Hidden $3.50 $0.41 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:53 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) [szopen](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/szopen) $3.50 $1.08 0.31x 2026-11-11 21:53 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) [pazdan666SKINS“skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pazdan666SKINS%E2%80%9Cskins.army%E2%80%9D) $3.50 $0.45 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-slag-well-worn) [Grzegorz Braun](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Grzegorz%20Braun) $3.50 $0.29 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) [Yrath](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Yrath) $3.50 $31.03 8.87x 2026-11-11 21:53 UTC

[XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-well-worn) [pazdan666SKINS“skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pazdan666SKINS%E2%80%9Cskins.army%E2%80%9D) $3.50 $0.41 0.12x 2026-11-11 21:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) [Matias skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Matias%20skins.army) $3.50 $28.22 8.06x 2026-11-11 21:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [Siuuuuskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Siuuuuskins.army) $3.50 $4.65 1.33x 2026-11-11 21:50 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $0.45 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-minimal-wear) [Siuuuuskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Siuuuuskins.army) $3.50 $4.41 1.26x 2026-11-11 21:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.50 | 88.90% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 19.9% covert 0.8% sunny 0.0% red 0.1% pink 5.6% extraordinary 0.1% classified 2.9% #d32ce6 1.2% Legendary 5.6% Classified 3.0% #4b69ff 36.1% #d32ee6 3.8% violet 20.9% best hit $214 (61.27x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.90 on average: an expected loss of $11.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt