---
title: "Mateuszyscie case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Mateuszyscie ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.83% from 30 items with odds, observed 92.01% over 4,266 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585442
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Mateuszyscie](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585442)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Mateuszyscie

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585442?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585442?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585442) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585442?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 88.83% · EV $8.88 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.01% · 4,266 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.84% ±24.42 456 openings

7 days · 91.97% ±9.00 3,359 openings

30 days · 92.01% ±7.98 4,266 openings

since tracking started · 92.01% ±7.98 4,266 openings

73.0% 98.0% 123.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585442?window=24h) | 456 | 97.84% ±24.4 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585442?window=7d) | 3,359 | 91.97% ±9.00 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585442) | 4,266 | 92.01% ±7.98 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1585442?window=all) | 4,266 | 92.01% ±7.98 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,284 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,277 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $796 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $568 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.95× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $505 | 1.5% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.69× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $381 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 1,493 | $200 | 1.5% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 971 | $130 | 1.5% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 952 | $127 | 1.5% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 210 | $83.81 | 4.5% | 26 | 20.4 | 1.28× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 201 | $80.15 | 4.5% | 15 | 21.3 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 171 | $68.21 | 4.5% | 27 | 25.0 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 157 | $62.43 | 4.5% | 25 | 27.3 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 138 | $54.96 | 4.5% | 38 | 31.1 | 1.22× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $51.78 | 4.5% | 27 | 33.0 | 0.82× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $45.79 | 4.5% | 38 | 37.3 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $26.25 | 4.5% | 80 | 65.0 | 1.23× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $23.32 | 4.5% | 68 | 73.2 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $21.00 | 4.5% | 94 | 81.3 | 1.16× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $17.89 | 6.8% | 147 | 145.3 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $17.40 | 6.8% | 145 | 149.4 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $16.48 | 6.8% | 159 | 157.7 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $15.10 | 6.8% | 175 | 172.1 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $10.78 | 6.8% | 250 | 241.1 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $10.64 | 6.8% | 257 | 244.3 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $3.49 | 0.4% | 46 | 38.9 | 1.18× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.87 | 0.4% | 160 | 155.9 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.58 | 0.4% | 219 | 233.9 | 0.94× |
| [MP5-SD \| Statics (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-battle-scarred) | 16.7% | $0.19 | 0.4% | 702 | 714.0 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-slag-field-tested) | 17.6% | $0.18 | 0.4% | 709 | 753.6 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 19.8% | $0.17 | 0.4% | 863 | 846.3 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1585442`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) [K0lbert.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/K0lbert.skins.army) $10.00 $1,277 127.7x 2026-11-02 22:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $796 79.56x 2026-11-07 03:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $796 79.56x 2026-11-03 23:59 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [MIREK skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MIREK%20skins.army) $10.00 $568 56.78x 2026-11-10 06:08 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [Grudiitosigmuszka](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Grudiitosigmuszka) $10.00 $568 56.78x 2026-11-07 09:48 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [Falcata](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Falcata) $10.00 $505 50.53x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) [Stone](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Stone) $10.00 $505 50.53x 2026-11-08 23:16 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $505 50.53x 2026-11-08 00:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1585442)

[MP5-SD | Statics (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) [olszi997](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/olszi997) $10.00 $17.40 1.74x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $10.64 1.06x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC

[MP5-SD | Statics (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-battle-scarred) [shaq](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/shaq) $10.00 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $54.96 5.50x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC

[MP5-SD | Statics (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-battle-scarred) [shaq](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/shaq) $10.00 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $10.00 $23.32 2.33x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) [SPENISON](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SPENISON) $10.00 $0.17 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-slag-field-tested) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $10.00 $0.18 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:08 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) [BoA\_Dupczyciel](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BoA_Dupczyciel) $10.00 $0.17 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.83% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.8% covert 3.7% #eb4b4b 0.5% classified 22.6% pink 3.7% uncommon 5.7% Rare 3.6% mil spec 5.5% #4b69ff 54.0% best hit $1,277 (127.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.83 on average: an expected loss of $11.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt