---
title: "AK-47 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AK-47 ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.94% from 35 items with odds, observed 89.02% over 34.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/16
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [AK-47](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/16)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · AK-47

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/16?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/16?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/16) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/16?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 88.94% · EV $4.45 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.02% · 34.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.76% ±5.68 4,656 openings

7 days · 88.52% ±2.41 28.5K openings

30 days · 89.02% ±2.20 34.5K openings

since tracking started · 89.02% ±2.20 34.5K openings

79.5% 85.8% 92.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/16?window=24h) | 4,656 | 85.76% ±5.68 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/16?window=7d) | 28.5K | 88.52% ±2.41 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/16) | 34.5K | 89.02% ±2.20 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/16?window=all) | 34.5K | 89.02% ±2.20 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $996 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $576 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $348 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $240 | 0.5% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $125 | 0.6% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $122 | 0.5% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $117 | 0.6% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 4,348 | $108 | 0.6% | 11 | 8.0 | 1.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $107 | 0.6% | 5 | 8.0 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 3,704 | $90.01 | 0.5% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 3,571 | $86.34 | 0.5% | 12 | 9.7 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 2,128 | $52.20 | 0.6% | 16 | 16.3 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 337 | $42.87 | 2.9% | 88 | 102.7 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 306 | $38.87 | 2.9% | 104 | 113.1 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 262 | $33.44 | 2.9% | 108 | 131.7 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 238 | $30.29 | 2.9% | 103 | 145.2 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 201 | $25.60 | 2.9% | 133 | 171.8 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 187 | $23.82 | 2.9% | 124 | 184.6 | 0.67× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 141 | $17.99 | 2.9% | 199 | 244.4 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 137 | $17.47 | 2.9% | 206 | 252.1 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 116 | $14.78 | 2.9% | 1,643 | 297.7 | 5.52× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $14.56 | 2.9% | 215 | 302.2 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $14.06 | 2.9% | 295 | 312.9 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $8.45 | 11.2% | 498 | 2045.8 | 0.24× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.93 | 11.2% | 595 | 2494.6 | 0.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $6.39 | 11.2% | 687 | 2705.5 | 0.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $5.59 | 11.2% | 2,987 | 3092.7 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $4.21 | 2.6% | 860 | 944.6 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $4.06 | 2.6% | 3,289 | 979.2 | 3.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $3.37 | 2.6% | 1,317 | 1179.7 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.15 | 2.6% | 1,548 | 1849.4 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.10 | 2.6% | 1,835 | 1893.3 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.63 | 2.6% | 2,180 | 2439.3 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.67 | 0.8% | 3,966 | 1806.2 | 2.20× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 31.3% | $0.11 | 0.8% | 11,515 | 10806.1 | 1.07× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/16`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.00 $1,070 214.0x 2026-11-07 19:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) [y4s](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/y4s) $5.00 $1,070 214.0x 2026-11-04 16:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [unlakiłak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/unlaki%C5%82ak) $5.00 $576 115.2x 2026-11-10 00:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) [Boyka skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Boyka%20skins.army) $5.00 $269 53.85x 2026-11-08 01:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) [Valar Morghulis](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Valar%20Morghulis) $5.00 $269 53.85x 2026-11-08 00:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $269 53.85x 2026-11-07 14:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) [freak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/freak) $5.00 $269 53.85x 2026-11-04 17:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=16)

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $5.59 1.12x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.00 $3.37 0.67x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) [kebzon skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kebzon%20skins.army) $5.00 $2.15 0.43x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $8.45 1.69x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.67 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) [kebzon skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kebzon%20skins.army) $5.00 $5.59 1.12x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $2.10 0.42x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $14.56 2.91x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) [kebzon skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kebzon%20skins.army) $5.00 $1.63 0.33x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $6.93 1.39x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $5.00 | 88.94% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 88.74% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 3.4% covert 0.8% red 0.0% mil spec 6.2% violet 3.2% industrial 9.8% restricted 8.7% rare 7.2% Uncommon 34.1% Mythical 8.8% Rare 10.7% blue 7.1% best hit $1,070 (214.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.94 on average: an expected loss of $11.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt