---
title: "Knifado case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Knifado ($15.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 31 items with odds, observed 86.78% over 4,867 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/160
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Knifado](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/160)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Knifado

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/160?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/160?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/160) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/160?window=all)

Price · $15.50

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $13.78 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.78% · 4,867 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.44% ±18.35 752 openings

7 days · 84.38% ±7.79 4,174 openings

30 days · 86.78% ±7.21 4,867 openings

since tracking started · 86.78% ±7.21 4,867 openings

76.0% 97.3% 118.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/160?window=24h) | 752 | 99.44% ±18.3 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/160?window=7d) | 4,174 | 84.38% ±7.79 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/160) | 4,867 | 86.78% ±7.21 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/160?window=all) | 4,867 | 86.78% ±7.21 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,874 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $1,369 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 1,754 | $526 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,639 | $493 | 2.2% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 709 | $212 | 2.2% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.31× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 685 | $205 | 2.2% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.84× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 680 | $204 | 2.2% | 13 | 7.2 | 1.81× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 629 | $189 | 2.2% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.90× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 595 | $179 | 2.2% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 503 | $151 | 2.2% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 239 | $149 | 4.5% | 28 | 20.4 | 1.37× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 223 | $139 | 4.5% | 21 | 21.9 | 0.96× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 172 | $107 | 4.5% | 20 | 28.3 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 159 | $98.92 | 4.5% | 21 | 30.7 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-well-worn) | 1 in 151 | $93.96 | 4.5% | 28 | 32.4 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $87.40 | 4.5% | 40 | 34.8 | 1.15× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $87.14 | 4.5% | 30 | 34.9 | 0.86× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $83.08 | 4.5% | 33 | 36.6 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $80.03 | 4.5% | 38 | 38.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $66.22 | 4.5% | 43 | 45.9 | 0.94× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $44.83 | 4.5% | 60 | 67.8 | 0.88× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $43.91 | 4.5% | 75 | 69.2 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $33.74 | 4.5% | 80 | 90.1 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $17.37 | 4.5% | 155 | 175.0 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $4.90 | 2.4% | 323 | 330.7 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $3.89 | 2.4% | 401 | 416.6 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $3.69 | 2.4% | 461 | 439.2 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $3.37 | 2.4% | 499 | 480.9 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $2.60 | 1.8% | 485 | 473.4 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) | 11.6% | $2.17 | 1.8% | 609 | 567.1 | 1.07× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 14.0% | $1.80 | 1.8% | 657 | 683.7 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 14.4% | $1.79 | 1.9% | 706 | 702.8 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/160`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $15.50 $1,369 88.35x 2026-11-04 09:19 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [Hyper](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Hyper) $15.50 $526 33.92x 2026-11-09 17:32 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $15.50 $526 33.92x 2026-11-07 12:45 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $15.50 $526 33.92x 2026-11-05 02:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=160)

[★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $15.50 $179 11.52x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [Jezykkn™](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jezykkn%E2%84%A2) $15.50 $1.80 0.12x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) Hidden $15.50 $2.17 0.14x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) Hidden $15.50 $3.37 0.22x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) [y4s](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/y4s) $15.50 $1.79 0.12x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $15.50 $43.91 2.83x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.50 $3.69 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) Hidden $15.50 $1.80 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) [Get-\_Sinibu7 CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Get-_Sinibu7%20CSGOSKINS) $15.50 $3.37 0.22x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) Hidden $15.50 $2.60 0.17x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $15.50 | 88.88% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.4% #ffd700 4.1% Immortal 0.1% restricted 39.0% #8847ff 10.4% mil spec 19.1% classified 2.6% #d32ee6 3.6% #4b69ff 8.5% Mythical 9.0% best hit $1,369 (88.35x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt