--- title: "Lucky punch Cougar case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky punch Cougar ($23.80) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 91.98% over 628 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1621358 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Lucky punch Cougar](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1621358) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Lucky punch Cougar A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1621358?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1621358?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1621358) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1621358?window=all) Price · $23.80 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 91.98% · 628 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 108 openings · below min 7 days · 529 openings · below min 30 days · 628 openings · below min since tracking started · 628 openings · below min 49.5% 84.7% 120.0% **Small sample.** 628 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1621358?window=24h) | 108 | 84.76% ±34.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1621358?window=7d) | 529 | 91.65% ±16.4 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1621358) | 628 | 91.98% ±15.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1621358?window=all) | 628 | 91.98% ±15.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** G4Skins publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1621358) [XM1014 | XOXO (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.70 $3.34 0.17x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.70 $1.12 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) [Lipski](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lipski) $19.70 $16.90 0.86x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) Hidden $19.70 $25.58 1.30x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) Hidden $19.70 $0.54 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) [Lipski](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lipski) $19.70 $15.75 0.80x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) Hidden $19.70 $9.15 0.46x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) [Haram Masari](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Haram%20Masari) $19.70 $1.14 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC [SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $19.70 $2.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:24 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) Hidden $19.70 $6.01 0.31x 2026-11-11 19:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.98 on average: an expected loss of $8.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt