--- title: "Arachnid Nexus case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Arachnid Nexus ($1.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.67% from 22 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634760 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Arachnid Nexus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634760) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Arachnid Nexus A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634760?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634760?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634760) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634760?window=all) Price · $1.50 Advertised RTP · 88.67% · EV $1.33 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634760?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634760?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634760) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634760?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $148 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $138 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $90.61 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $85.53 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $81.87 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-well-worn) | 1 in 4,762 | $59.38 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,695 | $21.32 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 1,370 | $17.24 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193 | $13.97 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 193 | $13.91 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 183 | $13.26 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 173 | $12.47 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 168 | $12.15 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $12.05 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $8.84 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $5.64 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $4.21 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $3.91 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $3.55 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $3.55 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $2.35 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-battle-scarred) | 78.5% | $0.16 | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1634760`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1634760) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.50 | 88.67% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% covert knife 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% classified 2.1% uncommon 0.5% restricted 5.4% pink 5.2% violet 0.6% #d32ee6 1.3% Classified 3.2% blue 3.2% Rare 78.5% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.67 on average: an expected loss of $11.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt