--- title: "Machete Mayhem case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Machete Mayhem ($4.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.95% from 24 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634763 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Machete Mayhem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634763) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Machete Mayhem A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634763?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634763?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634763) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634763?window=all) Price · $4.00 Advertised RTP · 88.95% · EV $3.56 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634763?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634763?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634763) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634763?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $322 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $295 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $286 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $247 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $213 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,030 | $138 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $137 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $133 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $91.23 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 1,724 | $77.75 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $40.73 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 177 | $38.11 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) | 1 in 174 | $37.59 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-well-worn) | 1 in 103 | $22.17 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $20.55 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $16.44 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $13.89 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $10.89 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $8.47 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $7.87 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $6.55 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.10 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $4.64 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-field-tested) | 68.4% | $0.09 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1634763`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1634763) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.00 | 88.95% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 68.4% covert 0.2% Covert 0.0% classified 4.1% #ffd700 0.0% Ancient 0.1% restricted 10.5% #d32ee6 3.3% pink 3.8% Legendary 9.4% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.95 on average: an expected loss of $11.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt