---
title: "Cursed Specter case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cursed Specter ($30.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.02% from 29 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634778
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Cursed Specter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634778)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Cursed Specter

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634778?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634778?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634778) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634778?window=all)

Price · $30.00

Advertised RTP · 89.02% · EV $26.70 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634778?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634778?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634778) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1634778?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $2,529 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $1,696 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,136 | $504 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,042 | $467 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $446 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 282 | $238 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 261 | $221 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 258 | $218 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $200 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Field-Tested) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-field-tested) | 1 in 233 | $197 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 163 | $138 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 151 | $128 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 138 | $117 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $110 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $96.93 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $81.08 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $81.06 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $75.41 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $65.25 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $58.46 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $50.29 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $49.36 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $47.49 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.50 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.84 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 20.8% | $0.51 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-field-tested) | 21.2% | $0.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1634778`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1634778)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $30.00 | 89.02% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 1.1% covert 12.1% covert knife 0.1% classified 6.6% Extraordinary 0.4% Mythical 0.7% #ffd700 0.7% restricted 26.9% Classified 5.3% mil spec 4.0% #4b69ff 42.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.02 on average: an expected loss of $10.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt