---
title: "Crimson Spotlight case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Crimson Spotlight ($8.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.90% from 33 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635077
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Crimson Spotlight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635077)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Crimson Spotlight

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635077?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635077?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635077) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635077?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 88.90% · EV $7.11 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635077?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635077?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635077) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635077?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $373 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $295 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 7,692 | $265 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $230 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $187 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $173 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $168 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $159 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $136 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 3,846 | $127 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $109 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $106 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $69.19 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $63.05 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 121 | $58.27 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $53.81 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $39.88 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $27.45 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $18.29 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $16.32 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $15.76 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $11.00 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $8.02 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $7.50 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $6.69 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $6.51 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $5.15 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $4.39 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $2.11 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.65 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.53 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-well-worn) | 13.1% | $0.28 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) | 28.5% | $0.14 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635077`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635077)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $8.00 | 88.90% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.1% classified 18.5% restricted 19.6% #ffd700 0.0% Ancient 0.8% extraordinary 0.8% pink 5.8% Legendary 1.7% mil spec 2.2% #4b69ff 48.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.90 on average: an expected loss of $11.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt