---
title: "Checkout Chaos case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Checkout Chaos ($1.80) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.85% from 31 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635094
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Checkout Chaos](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635094)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Checkout Chaos

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635094?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635094?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635094) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635094?window=all)

Price · $1.80

Advertised RTP · 88.85% · EV $1.60 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635094?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635094?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635094) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635094?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 2,564 | $64.25 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 1,961 | $49.20 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,282 | $31.86 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-well-worn) | 1 in 893 | $22.42 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 820 | $20.57 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 794 | $19.80 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 787 | $19.65 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $19.29 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 420 | $18.59 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $16.39 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 312 | $13.78 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 308 | $13.61 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 280 | $12.39 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 264 | $11.69 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162 | $7.18 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $6.91 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $6.43 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $5.23 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $4.63 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $4.23 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $3.98 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $3.97 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $3.80 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $3.77 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $3.23 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $3.16 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $2.88 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.84 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $2.80 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.93 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere \| Austin 2025 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-austin-2025) | 64.4% | $0.03 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635094`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635094)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.80 | 88.85% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% classified 1.7% mil spec 6.5% restricted 11.1% pink 4.3% industrial 0.3% #8847ff 2.7% Mythical 9.0% #4b69ff 64.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.85 on average: an expected loss of $11.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt