---
title: "Limited Drop case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Limited Drop ($20.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.00% from 37 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635097
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Limited Drop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635097)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Limited Drop

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635097?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635097?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635097) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635097?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 89.00% · EV $17.80 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635097?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635097?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635097) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635097?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $1,106 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $1,047 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,778 | $952 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,273 | $787 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $555 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $488 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $342 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 606 | $208 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 226 | $123 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 188 | $103 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 141 | $76.97 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $75.73 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 134 | $72.93 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $69.58 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $50.11 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $48.34 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $47.55 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $45.53 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $43.69 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $43.30 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $41.21 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $40.86 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $26.65 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $25.32 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $21.50 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $18.20 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $18.14 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $17.48 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $15.44 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $12.90 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $6.33 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $5.26 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $4.93 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $4.07 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) | 13.7% | $0.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) | 17.7% | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635097`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635097)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $20.00 | 89.00% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 11.4% covert 5.9% restricted 9.7% violet 0.7% mil spec 10.2% #d32ee6 5.5% Classified 1.2% pink 1.3% Uncommon 1.7% Mythical 4.5% #4b69ff 5.5% consumer 11.0% #87c7ff 13.7% industrial 17.7%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.00 on average: an expected loss of $11.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt