---
title: "Sharp Discount case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Sharp Discount ($35.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.82% from 34 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635098
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Sharp Discount](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635098)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Sharp Discount

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635098?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635098?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635098) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635098?window=all)

Price · $35.00

Advertised RTP · 88.82% · EV $31.09 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635098?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635098?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635098) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635098?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,471 | $1,054 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,235 | $883 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,099 | $782 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 781 | $559 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 719 | $515 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 699 | $499 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 649 | $464 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 294 | $294 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $286 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 285 | $285 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 277 | $277 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-factory-new) | 1 in 274 | $274 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $182 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $152 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $125 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 124 | $124 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $104 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $97.86 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $83.44 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $74.53 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $61.02 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $56.43 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $55.68 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $49.48 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $45.46 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $43.27 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $35.66 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $35.01 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $9.96 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $9.53 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $7.05 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $6.79 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $6.43 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) | 50.5% | $0.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635098`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635098)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $35.00 | 88.82% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.1% covert 13.4% extraordinary 0.4% restricted 1.5% classified 8.7% rare 3.6% #d32ce6 5.3% pink 6.3% Ancient 3.2% mil spec 2.0% #8847ff 5.0% #4b69ff 50.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.82 on average: an expected loss of $11.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt