---
title: "Mount Chief case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Mount Chief ($18.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.03% from 48 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635102
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Mount Chief](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635102)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Mount Chief

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635102?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635102?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635102) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635102?window=all)

Price · $18.00

Advertised RTP · 89.03% · EV $16.03 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635102?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635102?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635102) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635102?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 7,692 | $2,417 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 3,125 | $1,160 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 3,846 | $1,071 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 2,222 | $700 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-well-worn) | 1 in 2,632 | $680 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,222 | $654 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 2,222 | $585 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 1,282 | $382 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,163 | $329 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-well-worn) | 1 in 833 | $267 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 1,010 | $216 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 621 | $189 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 758 | $168 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-well-worn) | 1 in 714 | $135 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 654 | $132 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 254 | $119 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-battle-scarred) | 1 in 592 | $119 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 392 | $113 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 444 | $104 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-field-tested) | 1 in 360 | $97.72 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 483 | $97.41 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 353 | $76.80 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 304 | $72.08 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-well-worn) | 1 in 281 | $65.65 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $62.31 | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 521 | $59.83 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Bloody Darryl The Strapped \| The Professionals agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloody-darryl-the-strapped-the-professionals) | 1 in 248 | $49.87 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $47.05 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 152 | $45.04 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $44.37 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $42.61 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $37.36 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $34.30 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $33.34 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 233 | $31.41 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $26.89 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $24.76 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $23.77 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $14.48 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $10.61 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $8.01 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $6.57 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $6.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $5.47 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) | 14.8% | $0.58 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) | 15.8% | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Commando Company (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-commando-company-field-tested) | 27.6% | $0.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635102`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635102)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $18.00 | 89.03% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% legendary 0.0% gold 0.4% extraordinary 0.5% covert knife 0.3% sunny 0.1% red 2.5% restricted 6.3% mil spec 2.8% rare 0.6% classified 6.3% superior 0.4% #8847ff 3.9% Legendary 2.4% uncommon 2.9% Mythical 3.2% #d32ee6 1.4% industrial 1.8% #4b69ff 14.8% consumer 15.8% common 27.6% Common 4.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.03 on average: an expected loss of $10.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt