---
title: "Frost Magic case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Frost Magic ($1.80) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.17% from 31 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635128
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Frost Magic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635128)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Frost Magic

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635128?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635128?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635128) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635128?window=all)

Price · $1.80

Advertised RTP · 89.17% · EV $1.61 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 10.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635128?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635128?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635128) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635128?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $198 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $93.41 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 1,961 | $88.64 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,538 | $69.90 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 893 | $40.51 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 885 | $40.38 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 877 | $39.72 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 758 | $34.49 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 595 | $27.06 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 571 | $25.92 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 481 | $21.84 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 357 | $16.35 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 289 | $13.26 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 270 | $12.37 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 267 | $12.24 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 251 | $11.52 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 251 | $11.51 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 237 | $10.85 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $9.78 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 147 | $6.74 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $4.15 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $4.11 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $3.94 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $3.24 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $2.75 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $2.59 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $2.36 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $2.27 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.09 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Slashed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-slashed-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $2.04 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Aim And Fire sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aim-and-fire) | 70.2% | $0.05 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635128`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635128)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.80 | 89.17% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% classified 1.3% milspec 0.1% mil spec 12.8% industrial 0.1% Classified 0.1% Legendary 0.2% restricted 6.6% #8847ff 3.0% violet 4.7% #d32ee6 0.7% #4b69ff 70.2%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.17 on average: an expected loss of $10.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt