---
title: "Holiday Warmth case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Holiday Warmth ($20.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.11% from 32 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635132
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Holiday Warmth](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635132)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Holiday Warmth

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635132?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635132?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635132) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635132?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 89.11% · EV $17.82 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 13.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635132?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635132?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635132) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635132?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,594 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 4,167 | $1,967 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,449 | $689 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,429 | $676 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,220 | $582 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-field-tested) | 1 in 943 | $450 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 806 | $382 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 654 | $310 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 625 | $297 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 467 | $222 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 461 | $219 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 422 | $201 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 331 | $181 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-well-worn) | 1 in 287 | $156 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 265 | $145 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 246 | $134 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 242 | $132 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 221 | $120 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 210 | $115 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 177 | $96.73 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 162 | $88.21 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 134 | $73.01 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $72.35 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $41.58 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $39.96 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $38.74 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $35.36 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $31.90 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $28.89 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $27.00 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $26.64 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-field-tested) | 74.8% | $0.18 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635132`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635132)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $20.00 | 89.11% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.7% covert 3.7% gold 0.1% sunny 0.3% #ffd700 0.2% classified 7.7% covert knife 0.5% industrial 1.9% #4b69ff 1.9% restricted 2.6% pink 2.8% mil spec 2.8% light blue 74.8%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.11 on average: an expected loss of $10.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt