---
title: "Santa Arsenal case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Santa Arsenal ($50.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.11% from 32 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635134
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Santa Arsenal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635134)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Santa Arsenal

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635134?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635134?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635134) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635134?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 89.11% · EV $44.55 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635134?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635134?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635134) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635134?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,768 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,133 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,940 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,256 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,229 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $711 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $638 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $601 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 667 | $576 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 588 | $483 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $432 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $425 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $298 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 197 | $294 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-battle-scarred) | 1 in 158 | $236 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $230 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $211 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $205 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 127 | $190 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 126 | $188 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $152 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $143 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $142 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $126 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $120 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $94.41 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $92.34 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $83.35 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $82.44 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $63.78 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $60.79 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 68.5% | $0.39 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635134`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635134)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $50.00 | 89.11% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.2% classified 1.2% extraordinary 3.1% restricted 3.9% pink 0.2% rare 1.0% #4b69ff 1.8% Ancient 0.6% Mythical 0.7% mil spec 4.9% red 1.2% Restricted 2.7% covert knife 6.9% #8847ff 68.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.11 on average: an expected loss of $10.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt