--- title: "Shadow Optics case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Shadow Optics ($150.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 30 items with odds, observed 85.33% over 181 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635150 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Shadow Optics](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635150) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Shadow Optics A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635150?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635150?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635150) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635150?window=all) Price · $150.00 Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $133.33 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.33% · 181 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 86.06% ±25.45 161 openings 30 days · 85.33% ±24.01 181 openings since tracking started · 85.33% ±24.01 181 openings 18.5% 99.8% 181.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635150?window=24h) | 16 | 99.79% ±80.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635150?window=7d) | 161 | 86.06% ±25.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635150) | 181 | 85.33% ±24.0 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635150?window=all) | 181 | 85.33% ±24.0 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 181 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 980 | $3,665 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 543 | $2,036 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 408 | $1,534 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 376 | $1,408 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 331 | $1,240 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 325 | $1,217 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 315 | $1,184 | 2.8% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 300 | $1,126 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 118 | $663 | 4.2% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $494 | 4.2% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.43× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $490 | 4.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $477 | 4.2% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $422 | 4.2% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $376 | 4.2% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $361 | 4.2% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $345 | 4.2% | 8 | 2.9 | 2.71× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 104 | $292 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $281 | 2.1% | 6 | 1.8 | 3.31× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $238 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $233 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $221 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $211 | 2.1% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $192 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $190 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $182 | 2.1% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $174 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.37× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $164 | 2.1% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $156 | 2.1% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.84× | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $153 | 2.1% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 69.2% | $31.56 | 16.4% | 125 | 125.3 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635150`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $150 $1,217 8.11x 2026-11-05 15:10 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) [saju](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/saju) $150 $1,184 7.90x 2026-11-09 19:20 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) Hidden $150 $1,184 7.90x 2026-11-08 18:29 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [Francesco](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Francesco) $150 $663 4.42x 2026-11-11 00:06 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $150 $663 4.42x 2026-11-05 21:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635150) [M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) Hidden $150 $31.56 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) Hidden $150 $31.56 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $150 $31.56 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) Hidden $150 $31.56 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) Hidden $150 $31.56 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $150 $31.56 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) Hidden $150 $31.56 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) Hidden $150 $345 2.30x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $150 $281 1.87x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $150 $164 1.10x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $150 | 88.88% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 23.8% legendary 1.5% Covert 1.0% red 70.4% epic 1.5% Ancient 1.8% best hit $1,217 (8.11x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt