---
title: "Iron Burn case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Iron Burn ($4.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 37 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635169
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Iron Burn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635169)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Iron Burn

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635169?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635169?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635169) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635169?window=all)

Price · $4.00

Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $3.55 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 10.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635169?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635169?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635169) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635169?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $292 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-well-worn) | 1 in 2,941 | $208 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $201 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 2,778 | $196 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $174 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-well-worn) | 1 in 2,174 | $152 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $145 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $142 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $129 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $127 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 1,562 | $110 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,351 | $94.92 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,099 | $77.48 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 980 | $69.01 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 763 | $54.05 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 649 | $45.81 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 629 | $44.53 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-field-tested) | 1 in 319 | $36.77 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 235 | $27.06 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 187 | $21.49 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $17.25 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) | 1 in 131 | $15.01 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $12.84 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $12.45 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 107 | $12.35 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $10.87 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $9.46 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $8.91 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $8.36 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $8.28 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $7.89 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $5.14 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $5.06 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $4.64 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 23.3% | $0.23 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) | 24.6% | $0.17 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) | 26.6% | $0.15 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635169`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635169)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.00 | 88.87% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% extraordinary 0.1% #4b69ff 27.8% mil spec 7.4% covert knife 0.1% classified 2.3% restricted 6.8% Legendary 0.1% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% violet 3.8% industrial 0.8% pink 0.9% #8847ff 1.7% Rare 47.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt