---
title: "Move Mode case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Move Mode ($9.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.22% from 45 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635170
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Move Mode](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635170)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Move Mode

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635170?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635170?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635170) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635170?window=all)

Price · $9.00

Advertised RTP · 89.22% · EV $8.03 from 45 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635170?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635170?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635170) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635170?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 45 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $841 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-well-worn) | 1 in 3,125 | $796 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $662 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $303 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $299 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 4,167 | $263 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $221 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) | 1 in 1,587 | $187 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 917 | $145 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 787 | $132 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 820 | $108 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 671 | $96.58 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 820 | $95.81 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 331 | $80.28 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 1 in 505 | $78.59 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 676 | $76.94 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 1,190 | $72.41 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 575 | $70.66 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $69.66 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 526 | $58.81 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 469 | $52.35 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 282 | $51.45 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) | 1 in 331 | $49.98 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-well-worn) | 1 in 178 | $48.70 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 282 | $46.16 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-factory-new) | 1 in 232 | $45.68 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 151 | $40.77 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-factory-new) | 1 in 232 | $38.75 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-well-worn) | 1 in 150 | $29.69 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 151 | $27.67 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 219 | $23.65 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $22.93 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Balance (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-balance-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $20.42 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $16.25 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $16.10 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $15.72 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $14.91 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $14.32 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $13.71 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $13.51 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $11.31 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $10.87 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $7.44 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-field-tested) | 38.5% | $0.64 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-well-worn) | 33.9% | $0.62 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635170`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635170)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $9.00 | 89.22% | 45 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.0% #d32ee6 0.0% Covert 0.0% rare 0.1% gold 0.0% pink 1.4% restricted 8.1% classified 6.0% covert knife 0.3% extraordinary 0.2% #ffd700 0.1% Immortal 0.2% mil spec 2.0% industrial 0.3% #4b69ff 1.6% #d32ce6 0.4% Rare 0.5% violet 74.9% Mil Spec Grade 2.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.22 on average: an expected loss of $10.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt