---
title: "Raw Growth case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Raw Growth ($35.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.04% from 34 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635172
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Raw Growth](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635172)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Raw Growth

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635172?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635172?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635172) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635172?window=all)

Price · $35.00

Advertised RTP · 89.04% · EV $31.16 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 13.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635172?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635172?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635172) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635172?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $5,473 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,448 | $3,597 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-factory-new) | 1 in 493 | $1,479 | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,190 | $1,065 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-well-worn) | 1 in 752 | $720 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-well-worn) | 1 in 472 | $454 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) | 1 in 348 | $365 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 323 | $316 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 274 | $188 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $158 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| TSM Kinguin (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tsm-kinguin-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 170 | $145 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $140 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $136 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 176 | $133 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 172 | $126 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 148 | $115 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $107 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $93.48 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $82.52 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $79.47 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $74.00 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $63.31 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $58.39 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $57.00 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $55.50 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $54.82 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $53.59 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $44.93 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $36.80 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $36.08 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.94 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $2.27 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 25.7% | $1.38 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 20.4% | $1.31 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635172`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635172)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $35.00 | 89.04% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 1.0% covert 5.5% legendary 0.2% rare 0.5% #8847ff 28.3% covert knife 2.8% classified 11.0% milspec 1.7% restricted 21.4% Ancient 2.0% #4b69ff 25.7%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.04 on average: an expected loss of $10.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt