---
title: "Steel Control case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Steel Control ($50.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.47% from 36 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635173
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Steel Control](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635173)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Steel Control

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635173?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635173?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635173) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635173?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 88.47% · EV $44.23 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635173?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635173?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635173) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635173?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 709 | $707 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 633 | $634 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 617 | $616 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 474 | $473 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 372 | $372 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 248 | $248 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 223 | $223 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 208 | $208 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $198 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $162 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-factory-new) | 1 in 158 | $158 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-well-worn) | 1 in 157 | $157 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 152 | $153 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 144 | $144 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $143 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 136 | $136 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 132 | $132 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 132 | $132 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 122 | $122 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $118 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $116 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $104 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $94.07 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $91.55 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $91.44 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $78.97 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $71.64 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $66.02 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $62.09 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $57.66 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $57.00 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $50.02 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $10.76 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 16.6% | $6.48 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) | 17.0% | $6.33 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 18.3% | $5.55 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635173`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635173)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $50.00 | 88.47% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 12.5% Ancient 0.2% restricted 20.9% sunny 0.3% classified 7.2% violet 0.6% rare 0.6% milspec 4.1% red 1.5% mil spec 5.6% #4b69ff 3.0% pink 10.0% Legendary 16.6% Rare 17.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.47 on average: an expected loss of $11.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt