---
title: "MOUZ case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MOUZ ($3.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.84% from 47 items with odds, observed 88.41% over 15.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635174
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [MOUZ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635174)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · MOUZ

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635174?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635174?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635174) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635174?window=all)

Price · $3.50

Advertised RTP · 88.84% · EV $3.11 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.41% · 15.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.56% ±12.40 1,823 openings

7 days · 87.90% ±4.78 12.3K openings

30 days · 88.41% ±4.25 15.5K openings

since tracking started · 88.41% ±4.25 15.5K openings

79.5% 92.5% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635174?window=24h) | 1,823 | 92.56% ±12.4 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635174?window=7d) | 12.3K | 87.90% ±4.78 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635174) | 15.5K | 88.41% ±4.25 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635174?window=all) | 15.5K | 88.41% ±4.25 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 8,333 | $300 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $241 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $224 | 1.2% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.01× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $206 | 1.1% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $191 | 1.1% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $151 | 1.1% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $146 | 1.1% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $115 | 1.1% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.45× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,326 | $81.62 | 1.1% | 12 | 6.7 | 1.80× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $78.86 | 1.1% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $75.96 | 1.1% | 3 | 7.1 | 0.42× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,041 | $70.75 | 1.1% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,786 | $62.78 | 1.1% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,587 | $55.19 | 1.1% | 1 | 9.8 | 0.10× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-well-worn) | 1 in 1,493 | $52.35 | 1.1% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-well-worn) | 1 in 1,064 | $37.21 | 1.1% | 12 | 14.6 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 338 | $35.57 | 3.4% | 36 | 45.9 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 312 | $32.84 | 3.4% | 48 | 49.8 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) | 1 in 226 | $23.83 | 3.4% | 70 | 68.8 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 190 | $20.00 | 3.4% | 82 | 81.8 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) | 1 in 155 | $16.38 | 3.4% | 90 | 100.0 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $15.80 | 3.4% | 109 | 103.5 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $11.25 | 3.4% | 143 | 145.4 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $10.37 | 3.4% | 137 | 157.9 | 0.87× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $8.66 | 3.4% | 216 | 189.1 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $7.56 | 3.4% | 215 | 216.5 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $7.34 | 3.4% | 242 | 223.1 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $6.30 | 4.0% | 332 | 304.9 | 1.09× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $5.64 | 4.0% | 338 | 340.6 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $5.16 | 4.0% | 391 | 372.2 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $5.05 | 4.0% | 385 | 380.3 | 1.01× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $4.48 | 4.0% | 421 | 428.7 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $4.42 | 4.0% | 447 | 434.6 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $4.34 | 4.0% | 461 | 442.5 | 1.04× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $3.70 | 4.0% | 527 | 519.2 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $2.89 | 1.3% | 237 | 222.4 | 1.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $1.75 | 1.3% | 362 | 367.3 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $1.59 | 1.3% | 424 | 404.2 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.24 | 1.3% | 523 | 518.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.62 | 1.3% | 1,049 | 1036.4 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.52 | 0.9% | 800 | 810.4 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.43 | 0.9% | 961 | 979.7 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.40 | 0.9% | 1,028 | 1053.2 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.40 | 0.9% | 1,071 | 1053.2 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.38 | 0.9% | 1,103 | 1108.7 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fubar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.37 | 0.9% | 1,108 | 1138.7 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-battle-scarred) | 13.7% | $0.20 | 0.9% | 2,085 | 2128.8 | 0.98× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635174`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) [Faylxpek skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Faylxpek%20skins.army) $3.50 $300 85.68x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) Hidden $3.50 $300 85.68x 2026-11-07 22:38 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) [sandiis333](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sandiis333) $3.50 $241 68.86x 2026-11-06 14:20 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $224 63.92x 2026-11-09 20:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $224 63.92x 2026-11-09 18:00 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $224 63.92x 2026-11-07 21:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) [sJ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sJ) $3.50 $224 63.92x 2026-11-06 22:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) [Archi\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Archi_skins.army) $3.50 $224 63.92x 2026-11-06 08:02 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) [Mr. Bean](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mr.%20Bean) $3.50 $206 58.94x 2026-11-11 01:40 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) [Patrys aka Mexico](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Patrys%20aka%20Mexico) $3.50 $206 58.94x 2026-11-07 22:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635174)

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $5.05 1.44x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $3.50 $5.05 1.44x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC

[P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) [Zeusik](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zeusik) $3.50 $1.59 0.45x 2026-11-11 20:54 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) [Samiec Alfa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Samiec%20Alfa) $3.50 $0.38 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-minimal-wear) [kempen CASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kempen%20CASE.GIFT) $3.50 $1.75 0.50x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) [1234567890](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/1234567890) $3.50 $0.62 0.18x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) [Brunusss](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Brunusss) $3.50 $11.25 3.21x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) Hidden $3.50 $0.38 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:52 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) Hidden $3.50 $0.38 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:52 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) [Inwalida\_mikiskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Inwalida_mikiskins.army) $3.50 $0.62 0.18x 2026-11-11 20:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.50 | 88.84% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 2.6% covert 0.7% Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% Classified 0.1% pink 6.4% restricted 5.3% classified 8.8% violet 0.9% blue 1.0% #4b69ff 45.3% #8847ff 2.8% Legendary 1.4% #d32ee6 5.2% Restricted 6.7% mil spec 5.2% milspec 7.3% best hit $300 (85.68x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.84 on average: an expected loss of $11.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt