--- title: "LOVERBOY case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "LOVERBOY ($9.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.09% from 26 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635175 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [LOVERBOY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635175) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · LOVERBOY A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635175?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635175?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635175) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635175?window=all) Price · $9.20 Advertised RTP · 89.09% · EV $8.20 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635175?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635175?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635175) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635175?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $1,056 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $387 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $257 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 3,030 | $133 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $128 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 231 | $104 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 157 | $70.76 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 155 | $69.69 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 148 | $66.79 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $59.05 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $58.85 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $34.67 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $22.50 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $14.37 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $12.06 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $10.72 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $10.25 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $7.51 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $7.28 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $7.17 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $5.37 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $4.67 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $3.97 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $3.60 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 10.4% | $2.88 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 27.0% | $1.18 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635175`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635175) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $9.20 | 89.09% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.3% classified 10.5% Legendary 0.7% restricted 40.5% mil spec 5.2% #d32ee6 5.3% #8847ff 7.6% milspec 27.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.09 on average: an expected loss of $10.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt