---
title: "SERENADE case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SERENADE ($2.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.10% from 31 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635177
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [SERENADE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635177)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · SERENADE

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635177?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635177?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635177) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635177?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 89.10% · EV $1.78 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635177?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635177?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635177) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635177?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $182 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $143 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $131 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $98.50 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $95.22 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $90.52 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $86.31 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $71.19 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $66.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $60.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $44.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16,667 | $41.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,286 | $39.18 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $38.91 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,091 | $23.95 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $18.75 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 124 | $14.68 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $10.06 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $9.57 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $8.28 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $7.85 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $6.69 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $4.94 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $3.25 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $3.18 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $3.06 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $2.89 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.78 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $2.73 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.63 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 65.0% | $0.15 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635177`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635177)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.00 | 89.10% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 3.6% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 13.9% Ancient 0.0% pink 3.5% Legendary 3.9% Restricted 3.1% mil spec 3.3% #8847ff 3.7% Rare 65.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.10 on average: an expected loss of $10.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt