---
title: "Sapphire case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sapphire ($55.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.93% from 46 items with odds, observed 94.20% over 5,790 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635178
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:12Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635178)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Sapphire

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635178?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635178?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635178) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635178?window=all)

Price · $55.00

Advertised RTP · 88.93% · EV $48.91 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.20% · 5,790 openings, odds method

Variance · 23.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 57 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.40% ±37.24 647 openings

7 days · 95.24% ±12.75 5,522 openings

30 days · 94.20% ±12.45 5,790 openings

since tracking started · 94.20% ±12.45 5,790 openings

57.5% 95.5% 133.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635178?window=24h) | 647 | 95.40% ±37.2 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635178?window=7d) | 5,522 | 95.24% ±12.7 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635178) | 5,790 | 94.20% ±12.4 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635178?window=all) | 5,790 | 94.20% ±12.4 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,790 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 7,143 | $7,699 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 6,667 | $7,596 | 2.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $5,575 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $5,518 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 4,762 | $5,186 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 4,167 | $4,605 | 2.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,632 | $2,929 | 2.3% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,439 | $2,725 | 2.3% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.68× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,724 | $1,915 | 2.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,408 | $1,566 | 2.3% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,370 | $1,529 | 2.3% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,370 | $1,516 | 2.3% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,282 | $1,421 | 2.3% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.55× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,235 | $1,363 | 2.3% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.07× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,136 | $1,264 | 2.3% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,031 | $1,140 | 2.3% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · #ffd700 · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 952 | $1,060 | 2.3% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.32× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 943 | $1,045 | 2.3% | 11 | 6.1 | 1.79× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 893 | $987 | 2.3% | 9 | 6.5 | 1.39× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 794 | $877 | 2.3% | 15 | 7.3 | 2.06× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 719 | $796 | 2.3% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.24× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 599 | $664 | 2.3% | 5 | 9.7 | 0.52× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 552 | $611 | 2.3% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.05× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 518 | $574 | 2.3% | 5 | 11.2 | 0.45× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 510 | $565 | 2.3% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $555 | 2.3% | 12 | 11.6 | 1.04× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · #ffd700 · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $555 | 2.3% | 11 | 11.6 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 490 | $544 | 2.3% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 488 | $541 | 2.3% | 8 | 11.9 | 0.67× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · #ffd700 · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 418 | $463 | 2.3% | 16 | 13.8 | 1.16× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 377 | $418 | 2.3% | 23 | 15.3 | 1.50× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · gold · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 328 | $364 | 2.3% | 24 | 17.7 | 1.36× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 305 | $338 | 2.3% | 19 | 19.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 241 | $267 | 2.3% | 28 | 24.0 | 1.17× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 204 | $226 | 2.3% | 36 | 28.4 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 203 | $203 | 2.0% | 28 | 28.5 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) | 1 in 151 | $151 | 2.0% | 44 | 38.3 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $133 | 2.0% | 46 | 43.4 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $128 | 2.0% | 40 | 45.2 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $96.29 | 2.0% | 79 | 60.1 | 1.31× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $85.15 | 2.0% | 78 | 68.0 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $82.84 | 2.0% | 72 | 69.9 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $80.04 | 2.0% | 76 | 72.3 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $70.15 | 2.0% | 83 | 82.5 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $22.69 | 2.0% | 245 | 255.1 | 0.96× |
| [Charm \| Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) | 81.8% | $0.15 | 0.3% | 4,677 | 4737.8 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635178`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [♿Ali5Cali♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%99%BFAli5Cali%E2%99%BF) $55.00 $7,596 138.1x 2026-11-11 09:50 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [♤|NEQQ| skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%99%A4%7CNEQQ%7C%20skins.army) $55.00 $7,596 138.1x 2026-11-06 16:05 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $55.00 $5,575 101.4x 2026-11-10 14:16 UTC

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [♿Ali5Cali♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%99%BFAli5Cali%E2%99%BF) $55.00 $5,518 100.3x 2026-11-10 13:46 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $55.00 $4,605 83.73x 2026-11-05 17:34 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $55.00 $2,725 49.54x 2026-11-10 14:25 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $55.00 $2,725 49.54x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $55.00 $2,725 49.54x 2026-11-09 17:52 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $55.00 $2,725 49.54x 2026-11-09 16:11 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $55.00 $1,915 34.82x 2026-11-10 11:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635178)

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) Hidden $55.00 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $55.00 $96.29 1.75x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[AUG | Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $55.00 $22.69 0.41x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) Hidden $55.00 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) [Rejox](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Rejox) $55.00 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) Hidden $55.00 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) [Rejox](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Rejox) $55.00 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) Hidden $55.00 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) Hidden $55.00 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) Hidden $55.00 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $55.00 | 88.93% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.8% legendary 0.3% #ffd700 0.5% gold 0.6% classified 2.4% violet 5.4% Mythical 1.2% Rare 81.8% best hit $7,596 (138.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.93 on average: an expected loss of $11.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt