---
title: "Black Pearl case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Black Pearl ($295.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.44% from 33 items with odds, observed 92.10% over 191 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635183
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635183)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Black Pearl

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635183?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635183?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635183) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635183?window=all)

Price · $295.00

Advertised RTP · 86.44% · EV $254.99 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.10% · 191 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 16 openings · below min

7 days · 103.64% ±43.64 113 openings

30 days · 92.10% ±33.57 191 openings

since tracking started · 92.10% ±33.57 191 openings

-0.5% 88.8% 178.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635183?window=24h) | 16 | 61.46% ±116.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635183?window=7d) | 113 | 103.64% ±43.6 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635183) | 191 | 92.10% ±33.6 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635183?window=all) | 191 | 92.10% ±33.6 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 191 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,754 | $13.8K | 3.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,471 | $11.6K | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,176 | $9,254 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 667 | $5,261 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 521 | $4,120 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 444 | $3,514 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 402 | $3,181 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 323 | $2,554 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 213 | $1,687 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 164 | $1,301 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 163 | $1,291 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 157 | $1,244 | 3.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.65× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 137 | $1,080 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 119 | $942 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · #ffd700 · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 108 | $854 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $792 | 3.2% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 88 | $693 | 3.1% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $690 | 3.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $677 | 3.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 85 | $669 | 3.1% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 84 | $667 | 3.1% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 72 | $572 | 3.1% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.89× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $545 | 3.2% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $476 | 3.2% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.54× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 60 | $474 | 3.1% | 5 | 3.2 | 1.57× |
| [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $430 | 3.2% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 53 | $417 | 3.1% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $333 | 3.2% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.29× |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $246 | 3.2% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $244 | 3.2% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 29 | $226 | 3.1% | 10 | 6.7 | 1.50× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $188 | 3.2% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| [Charm \| Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) | 60.1% | $0.21 | 0.0% | 107 | 114.8 | 0.93× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635183`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $295 $13.8K 46.74x 2026-11-09 23:05 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $295 $3,181 10.78x 2026-11-06 22:43 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $295 $1,301 4.41x 2026-11-04 08:12 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $295 $1,244 4.22x 2026-11-04 20:52 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [IG:Szymonekk17\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/IG%3ASzymonekk17_) $295 $1,244 4.22x 2026-11-03 20:19 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $295 $1,080 3.66x 2026-11-04 08:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $295 $792 2.68x 2026-11-03 19:13 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [IG:Szymonekk17\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/IG%3ASzymonekk17_) $295 $693 2.35x 2026-11-03 20:19 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $295 $693 2.35x 2026-11-03 20:19 UTC

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $295 $690 2.34x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635183)

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) Hidden $295 $0.21 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) Hidden $295 $677 2.30x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $295 $0.21 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) Hidden $295 $0.21 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[P90 | Run and Hide (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) Hidden $295 $244 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) Hidden $295 $0.21 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) [✪ g u e s t ✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9C%AA%20g%20u%20e%20s%20t%20%E2%9C%AA) $295 $0.21 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) Hidden $295 $188 0.64x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) Hidden $295 $0.21 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

[P90 | Run and Hide (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) [IG:Szymonekk17\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/IG%3ASzymonekk17_) $295 $244 0.83x 2026-11-10 20:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $295 | 86.44% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 19.4% legendary 2.7% gold 0.6% #ffd700 0.9% classified 7.6% mil spec 1.9% restricted 2.4% pink 4.3% Rare 60.1% best hit $13.8K (46.74x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.44 on average: an expected loss of $13.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt