--- title: "Scarlet Thorn case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Scarlet Thorn ($1.90) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.04% from 27 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635215 rendered: 2026-11-12T03:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Scarlet Thorn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635215) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Scarlet Thorn A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635215?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635215?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635215) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635215?window=all) Price · $1.90 Advertised RTP · 89.04% · EV $1.69 from 27 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635215?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635215?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635215) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635215?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $366 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $251 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $220 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $155 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $134 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $97.47 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $88.26 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $72.47 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $57.19 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $51.24 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $40.16 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 422 | $35.17 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 376 | $31.38 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 340 | $28.37 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 265 | $22.10 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $14.03 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 165 | $13.78 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $13.44 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $12.95 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $8.53 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $6.56 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $6.34 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $6.08 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $6.06 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $5.06 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $3.84 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) | 80.5% | $0.04 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635215`, 12 Nov, 00:34 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635215) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.90 | 89.04% | 27 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 5.5% covert 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 0.5% extraordinary 0.0% #d32ee6 2.1% pink 1.6% violet 0.6% mil spec 2.7% #8847ff 0.6% Mythical 2.2% Rare 3.5% #777777 80.5% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.04 on average: an expected loss of $10.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt